Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group B - Round 21

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pietro Barbetti (Gubbio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255


	Gubbio		Lucchese

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.9	3.4
	2.14	3	3.6
	2.19	2.91	3.78	Watch
	2.15	2.88	3.5
	2.07	2.98	3.58	Watch
	2.14	3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.16)	2.95 ↓ (3.09)	3.58 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gubbio
43.2%

Draw
31.1%

Lucchese
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

28.7%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gubbio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Lucchese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Gubbio - Lucchese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Venturi G. (G) 5. D'Avino L. 33. Rocchi G. 15. Signorini A. 21. Corsinelli F. 8. Rosaia G. (C) 78. Iaccarino G. 24. Zallu F. 7. D'Ursi E. 28. Maisto F. 9. Tommasini C.	22. Palmisani L. (G) 30. Gemignani A. 13. Fazzi N. 6. Gasbarro A. 29. Antoni E. 14. Quirini E. 8. Tumbarello G. 27. Gucher R. 31. Catanese G. 70. Saporiti E. 10. Selvini A.
Substitutes
1. Bolletta L. (G) 34. Conti V. 25. David A. 39. Mancini R. 31. Pirrello R. 11. Rovaglia P. 13. Stramaccioni D. . Tentardini A.	12. Allegrucci L. (G) 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 19. Fedato F. 77. Giacchino G. 38. Leone M. 9. Magnaghi S. 33. Sabbione A. 18. Sasanelli L. 21. Visconti E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Tommasini C. ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Selvini A. ⚽,
19', Palmisani L. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 1, Corsinelli F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Maisto F. ↓, Tentardini A. ↑,
64', Selvini A. ↓, Magnaghi S. ↑,
69', 3 - 1, Tommasini C. ⚽,
72', Gucher R. ↓, Visconti E. ↑,
72', Gemignani A. ↓, Cartano R. ↑,
77', Saporiti E. 🟨,
78', Catanese G. ↓, Giacchino G. ↑,
82', Tommasini C. ↓, Rovaglia P. ↑,
87', Cartano R. 🟨,
90+2', D'Ursi E. ↓, Stramaccioni D. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gubbio won 4.

Gubbio has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lucchese is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gubbio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Gubbio will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Gubbio won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:5 (average 1:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Gubbio won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 0.8:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
21.12.24	Sestri Levante - Gubbio	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Gubbio - SPAL	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Milan Futuro - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
30.11.24	Gubbio - Pescara	1:2 ✺
24.11.24	Ascoli - Gubbio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
20.12.24	Lucchese - Pineto	3:3 ✺
15.12.24	Sassari Torres - Lucchese	0:0 ✺
09.12.24	Lucchese - Arezzo	0:1 ✺
30.11.24	Vis Pesaro - Lucchese	2:1 ✺
25.11.24	Lucchese - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
30.08.24	Lucchese - Gubbio	0:1
28.01.24	Gubbio - Lucchese	1:0
19.09.23	Lucchese - Gubbio	0:0
18.03.23	Gubbio - Lucchese	2:0
20.11.22	Lucchese - Gubbio	0:2
01.05.22	Gubbio - Lucchese	1:0
19.03.22	Lucchese - Gubbio	2:2

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