Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group B - Round 27

Date: 17 February 2025, Monday

Location: Porta Elisa (Lucca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Lucchese		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.9	2.35
	3.12	2.93	2.42
	3.03	3.06	2.45	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.4
	2.92	3.1	2.31	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.2)	2.97 ↓ (3.17)	2.38 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucchese
30.8%

Draw
30.8%

Perugia
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

28.6%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.9%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lucchese's form might have worsened.

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Perugia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lucchese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Perugia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	36.4%	54.5%

Lucchese - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lucchese will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Perugia will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Perugia: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
59. Melgrati R. (G) 56. da Silva J. 27. Gucher R. 3. Rizzo N. 30. Gemignani A. 8. Tumbarello G. 21. Visconti E. 31. Catanese G. 29. Antoni E. 70. Saporiti E. 9. Magnaghi S.	1. Gemello L. (G) 4. Leo D. 15. Dell'Orco C. (C) 98. Giraudo F. 17. Cisco A. 24. Torrasi E. 29. Broh J. 23. Lisi F. 10. Matos 7. Kanoute M. 9. Montevago D.
Substitutes
12. Allegrucci L. (G) 77. Badje I. 34. Benedetti S. 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 96. Galli G. 80. Gheza F. 71. Moschella M. 15. Salomaa H. 10. Selvini A.	22. Albertoni M. (G) 6. Giunti G. 20. Joselito 84. Lickunas A. 30. Marconi G. 67. Plaia M. 73. Polizzi M. 11. Seghetti A. 12. Yimga F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Matos ⚽,
40', Giraudo F. 🟨,
42', Gucher R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', da Silva J. ↓, Benedetti S. ↑,
46', Lisi F. ↓, Giunti G. ↑,
46', Giraudo F. ↓, Plaia M. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Magnaghi S. ⚽,
64', Montevago D. ↓, Joselito ↑,
68', Plaia M. 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Magnaghi S. ⚽,
72', Torrasi E. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
79', Cisco A. ↓, Marconi G. ↑,
80', Magnaghi S. ↓, Selvini A. ↑,
80', Catanese G. ↓, Galli G. ↑,
90+1', Tumbarello G. ↓, Salomaa H. ↑,
90+5', Gemignani A. ↓, Cartano R. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 15).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lucchese won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:7 (average 0:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Lucchese won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
08.02.25	Milan Futuro - Lucchese	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Pianese - Lucchese	2:0 ✺
24.01.25	Lucchese - Ascoli	2:1 ✺
18.01.25	Rimini - Lucchese	0:0 ✺
10.01.25	Lucchese - SPAL	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WLWTL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
07.02.25	Perugia - Vis Pesaro	0:1 ✺
01.02.25	Rimini - Perugia	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Perugia - Pescara	0:0 ✺
20.01.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:0 ✺
10.01.25	Perugia - Carpi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
06.10.24	Perugia - Lucchese	4:0
07.01.24	Perugia - Lucchese	3:0
01.09.23	Lucchese - Perugia	0:0

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