Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - FINAL

Date: 24 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)


	Ludogorets Razgrad		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4	4	1.8	Watch
	3.9	4.1	1.8
	4.05	4.2	1.77
	4	4.15	1.77
	4.19	4.23	1.78
	3.9	3.6	1.7
	4.1	4.15	1.74
	4	4.2	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↓ (4.4)	4.08 ↑ (3.74)	1.77 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ludogorets Razgrad
23.5%

Draw
23.2%

Ajax
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

25%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

25.1%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ludogorets Razgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	3.7%	90.1%

Ludogorets Razgrad - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (73 of 81 users predict this - 90.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.62% – 96.62%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Padt S. (G) 16. Witry A. F. 24. Verdon O. 26. Sundberg N. 44. Heister M. 82. Yordanov I. 8. Goncalves C. 6. Piotrowski J. 37. Tekpetey B. 99. Rwan Seco 11. Despodov K. (C)	12. Gorter J. (G) 2. Rensch D. 18. Medic J. 4. Hato J. 5. Wijndal O. 33. Tahirovic B. 23. Berghuis S. 8. Taylor K. 20. Kudus M. 9. Brobbey B. 7. Bergwijn S. (C)
Substitutes
77. Caio Vidal 90. Delev S. 88. Nedelev T. 30. Pedro Naressi 69. Pepelyashev P. (G) 32. Plastun I. 7. Rick 22. Russo F. 12. Sluga S. (G) 5. Terziev G. 10. Tissera M. 64. Yankov D.	43. Aertssen O. 11. Borges C. 3. Gaaei A. 39. Godts M. 38. Hlynsson K. 6. Klaassen D. 40. Ramaj D. (G) 36. Rasmussen Theodor C. K. 17. Salah-Eddine A. 51. Setford C. (G) 21. van den Boomen B. 24. Vos S.
Coaches
Petev I.	Steijn M.

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Ludogorets is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ajax is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ajax could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Ajax have a series of guest games.

In this match Ajax is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
20.08.23	Cherno More Varna - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.08.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - Astana	5:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
13.08.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - CSKA Sofia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.08.23	Astana - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
05.08.23	Botev Vratsa - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
19.08.23	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2 ✺
12.08.23	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.23	Borussia Dortmund - Ajax	3:1 ✺
29.07.23	Augsburg - Ajax	3:1 ✺
22.07.23	Anderlecht - Ajax	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TWLLL

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