Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 8 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Fesnic H. (Rou)


	Astana		Ludogorets Razgrad

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.3	2.38	Watch
	3	3.25	2.37
	3	3.1	2.4
	3.1	3.1	2.4
	3.18	3.18	2.47
	3	3	2.2
	3	3.3	2.36
	3	3.35	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.66)	3.2 ↓ (3.25)	2.38 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
31.2%

Draw
29.3%

Ludogorets Razgrad
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29.2%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

30.3%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Ludogorets Razgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Astana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ludogorets Razgrad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	25%	70%

Astana - Ludogorets Razgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Astana will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Ludogorets will win (votes: 14 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ludogorets: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Condric J. (G) 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 22. Marochkin A. 33. Tomasevic Z. 13. Hovhannisyan K. 7. Ebong M. 44. Loncar S. 6. Vorogovskiy Y. 88. Darboe D. 17. Aymbetov A. 23. Ourega F.	1. Padt S. (G) 16. Witry A. F. 24. Verdon O. 22. Russo F. 44. Heister M. 26. Sundberg N. 6. Piotrowski J. 8. Goncalves C. 37. Tekpetey B. 99. Cruz R. 11. Despodov K. (C)
Substitutes
21. Astanov E. 72. Basmanov S. 11. Darabayev A. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 5. Gabyshev M. 3. Haroyan V. 29. Jovancic D. 8. Kuat I. 31. Podymskiy D. (G) 20. Prokopenko V. 10. Tomasov M. 55. Zarutskiy A. (G)	77. Caio Vidal 90. Delev S. 88. Nedelev T. 30. Pedro Naressi 69. Pepelyashev P. (G) 32. Plastun I. 12. Sluga S. (G) 5. Terziev G. 10. Tissera M. 64. Yankov D. 82. Yordanov I.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Petev I.

Preview

1st leg.

Astana is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ludogorets is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Astana could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Astana won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Astana won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
UEFA Champions League
02.08.23	Astana - Dinamo Zagreb	0:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
29.07.23	Kyzylzhar - Astana	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.07.23	Dinamo Zagreb - Astana	4:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
22.07.23	Astana - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.07.23	Dinamo Tbilisi - Astana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLTW
- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
05.08.23	Botev Vratsa - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.08.23	Olimpija Ljubljana - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:1 ✺
26.07.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
22.07.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.07.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - Ballkani	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLTWW

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