Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 17 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)


	Ludogorets Razgrad		Astana

	1	X	2
	1.44	5	5.75	Watch
	1.47	5	6
	1.42	4.7	7.5
	1.45	4.75	6
	1.46	4.91	6.61
	1.35	4.6	6
	1.39	5.15	6.8
	1.47	5	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.7)	4.89 ↑ (3.65)	6.36 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ludogorets Razgrad
65.9%

Draw
19.3%

Astana
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.7%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

25%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ludogorets Razgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ludogorets Razgrad's performance.

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ludogorets Razgrad that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
97%	1.5%	1.5%

Ludogorets Razgrad - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: Ludogorets Razgrad will win (65 of 67 users predict this - 97.01%).
Confidence interval (95%): 92.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Sluga S. (G) 16. Witry A. F. 24. Verdon O. 26. Sundberg N. 44. Heister M. 8. Goncalves C. 6. Piotrowski J. 82. Yordanov I. 37. Tekpetey B. 99. Rwan Seco 11. Despodov K. (C)	93. Condric J. (G) 29. Jovancic D. 22. Marochkin A. 33. Tomasevic Z. 13. Hovhannisyan K. 7. Ebong M. 44. Loncar S. 6. Vorogovskiy Y. 88. Darboe D. 17. Aymbetov A. (C) 23. Ourega F.
Substitutes
77. Caio Vidal 90. Delev S. 88. Nedelev T. 1. Padt S. (G) 30. Pedro Naressi 69. Pepelyashev P. (G) 32. Plastun I. 7. Rick 22. Russo F. 5. Terziev G. 10. Tissera M. 64. Yankov D.	45. Amanovic A. 21. Astanov E. 72. Basmanov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 11. Darabayev A. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 5. Gabyshev M. 8. Kuat I. 31. Podymskiy D. (G) 20. Prokopenko V. 10. Tomasov M. 55. Zarutskiy A. (G)
Coaches
Petev I.	Babayan G.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Ludogorets is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Astana is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ludogorets could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ludogorets is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ludogorets won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
13.08.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - CSKA Sofia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.08.23	Astana - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
05.08.23	Botev Vratsa - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.08.23	Olimpija Ljubljana - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:1 ✺
26.07.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLT
- FC Astana
UEFA Europa League
08.08.23	Astana - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.08.23	Astana - Dinamo Zagreb	0:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
29.07.23	Kyzylzhar - Astana	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.07.23	Dinamo Zagreb - Astana	4:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
22.07.23	Astana - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
08.08.23	Astana - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:1

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