Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Referee: Nagtegaal M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Excelsior		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4	3.8	1.83	Watch
	4.1	4	1.77
	3.95	3.95	1.82
	4.1	4.05	1.88
	4.03	4	1.8	Watch
	4	3.7	1.75
	4.32	3.9	1.84	Watch
	4	3.8	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↓ (4.77)	3.9 ↓ (3.92)	1.81 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
23.3%

Draw
24.3%

Ajax
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

23.9%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

23.1%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	11.5%	76.9%

Excelsior - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Ajax will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Ajax (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Ajax (votes: 11 - 84.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 20. Hartjes L. 4. Widell C. (C) 3. Meissen R. 12. Zagre A. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 23. Yegoian I. 10. Naujoks N. 7. Hansson E. 33. Bergraaf J.	1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 24. Mokio J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 48. Steur S. 43. Bounida R. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
6. Carlen A. 11. de Regt G. 5. Henderikx S. 15. Janssen S. 26. Jonathans M. 17. Martens N. 18. Nadje C. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 14. Schouten L. 29. van Duinen M.	41. Alders G. 23. Berghuis S. 30. Bouwman A. 17. Edvardsen O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 16. Johnson J. 68. Ouazane A. 55. Peters T. 52. Reverson P. (G) 32. Tomiyasu T. 25. Weghorst W.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Bounida R. (A),
40', 0 - 2, Godts M. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
62', Hansson E. ↓, de Regt G. ↑,
63', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
63', Bergraaf J. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
67', Dolberg K. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
67', Bounida R. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
70', Schouten L. 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Jonathans M. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),
79', 2 - 2, Zagre A. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),
80', Mokio J. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
80', Steur S. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
89', Hartjes L. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ajax is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: van Duinen M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 18:49. (average 1.1:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:24. (average 0.9:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	Twente - Excelsior	0:0 ✺
21.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Excelsior - Telstar	2:2 ✺
10.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - Excelsior	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Excelsior - Zwolle	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 TTTLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Ajax - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	Ajax - Volendam	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Villarreal - Ajax	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2
24.04.24	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2
19.08.23	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2
29.01.23	Excelsior - Ajax	1:4
16.10.22	Ajax - Excelsior	7:1
13.04.19	Ajax - Excelsior	6:2
11.11.18	Excelsior - Ajax	1:7

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