Match Info

Super League - Round 26

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio di Cornaredo (Lugano)

Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Ukraine	Sport 2, Sport 3


	Lugano		Lausanne-Sport

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.6	4	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.9
	1.75	3.75	4.15
	1.89	3.69	3.99
	1.77	3.94	4.25	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.78	3.76	4.17	Watch
	1.88	3.66	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.12)	3.7 ↑ (3.61)	4.03 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lugano
51.6%

Draw
25.2%

Lausanne-Sport
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

26.2%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

26.9%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Lausanne-Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lausanne-Sport might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lausanne-Sport than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lausanne-Sport could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	23.1%	0%

Lugano - Lausanne Sport Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugano: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lugano (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Lausanne-Sport (2.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugano will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Lausanne-Sport (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 6. Papadopoulos A. 4. Kelvin D. 17. Mai L. 46. Zanotti M. 8. Grgic A. 25. Bislimi U. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 11. Steffen R. (C) 9. Koutsias G.	25. Letica K. (G) 6. Bergvall T. 14. Mouanga K. (C) 71. Sow K. 18. Poaty M. 8. Roche J. 2. Soppy B. 91. Mollet F. 27. Lekoueiry B. 17. Traore S. 70. Diakite G.
Substitutes
7. Alioski E. 29. Belhadj M. 10. Bottani M. 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 44. Joao Carbone 14. Kendouci A. 18. Mahou H. 24. Pihlstrom E. 16. von Ballmoos D. (G)	7. Ajdini A. 11. Butler-Oyedeji N. 1. Castella T. (G) 10. Custodio O. 93. Fofana S. 78. Janneh O. 22. Kana-Biyik E. 80. Kone S. 54. Lippo R.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Zeidler P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Steffen R. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Roche J. ↓, Custodio O. ↑,
49', Mai L. 🟨,
61', 2 - 0, Dos Santos D. ⚽, Steffen R. (A),
62', Dos Santos D. 🟨,
64', Lekoueiry B. ↓, Kana-Biyik E. ↑,
64', Bergvall T. ↓, Kone S. ↑,
64', Traore S. ↓, Janneh O. ↑,
71', Mai L. ↓, Joao Carbone ↑,
71', Dos Santos D. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
79', Diakite G. ↓, Ajdini A. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Mollet F. ⚽, Janneh O. (A),
81', Zanotti M. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
81', Steffen R. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
86', Cimignani Y. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
87', Alioski E. 🟨,
88', Soppy B. 🟨,
90+2', Grgic A. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 0.

Lugano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lausanne-Sport is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lugano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lugano is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 1.6:0.8).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Lugano: 42.18% Lausanne: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	10	9	1	0	31:7	24	28
12	Lausanne	9	1	3	5	7:15	-8	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
15.02.26	Basel - Lugano	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	Lugano - Servette	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Winterthur - Lugano	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Grasshoppers - Lugano	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Lugano - Winterthur	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTTW
- Lausanne-Sport
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Sigma Olomouc - Lausanne-Sport	1:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
15.02.26	Lausanne-Sport - Servette	3:3 ✺
12.02.26	Thun - Lausanne-Sport	5:1 ✺
08.02.26	Lausanne-Sport - St. Gallen	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Winterthur - Lausanne-Sport	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
07.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	0:0
17.09.25	Lugano - Lausanne-Sport	1:1
18.05.25	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	1:1
21.04.25	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	2:0
15.12.24	Lugano - Lausanne-Sport	1:4
18.09.24	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	1:2
20.04.24	Lugano - Lausanne-Sport	2:0

Upcoming Matches