Match Info

Super League - Round 4

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: AIL Arena (Lugano)


	Lugano		St. Gallen

	1	X	2
	1.96	4	3.2	Watch
	2.05	3.80	3.10
	2.02	3.75	3.05
	2.06	4.12	3.32
	2.03	4.03	3.2	Watch
	2	4	3.2
	2.02	3.88	3.15	Watch
	2.04	3.9	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.99)	3.94 ↑ (3.69)	3.17 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lugano
46.4%

Draw
23.9%

St. Gallen
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

25.1%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

23.3%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

St. Gallen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Gallen than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Lugano - St. Gallen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.44) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

1X2 - Lugano (2.10) (votes: 87%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Gebhardt F. (G) 2. Karimov B. 17. Mai L. 6. Papadopoulos A. 18. Bichsel J. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. (C) 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 24. Pihlstrom E. 22. Castro Espinosa B. D.	1. Ati Zigi L. (G) 3. Kleine-Bekel C. 4. Stanic J. 36. Okoroji C. 10. Daschner L. (C) 74. Ruiz J. 64. Stevanovic M. 11. Boukhalfa C. 7. Witzig C. 70. Scherrer N. 14. Balde A.
Substitutes
23. Ajdin G. 9. Ajeti Al. 7. Alioski E. 3. Delcroix H. 4. Kelvin D. 14. Kendouci A. 30. Moncada D. 39. Ndiaye C. (G) 46. Zanotti M.	31. Besio D. 23. Fazliji B. 26. Gaal T. 68. Heydari M. 9. Hunziker A. 47. Owusu E. 28. Vandermersch H. 25. Watkowiak L. (G)
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Maassen E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Castro Espinosa B. D. ⚽, Papadopoulos A. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Pihlstrom E. ⚽,
16', Karimov B. 🟨,
28', 3 - 0, Pihlstrom E. ⚽, Bichsel J. (A),
32', Scherrer N. 🟨,
36', 4 - 0, Karimov B. ⚽, Mai L. (A),
40', Daschner L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Scherrer N. ↓, Hunziker A. ↑,
46', Daschner L. ↓, Fazliji B. ↑,
46', Boukhalfa C. ↓, Vandermersch H. ↑,
46', Karimov B. ↓, Zanotti M. ↑,
47', Pihlstrom E. 🟥,
55', Castro Espinosa B. D. ↓, Ajeti Al. ↑,
58', Bislimi U. 🟨,
61', Ruiz J. ↓, Owusu E. ↑,
67', Balde A. ↓, Besio D. ↑,
68', Dos Santos D. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,
71', Okoroji C. 🟨,
74', 4 - 1, Hunziker A. ⚽, Kleine-Bekel C. (A),
77', Ajeti Al. 🟨,
82', Cimignani Y. ↓, Kelvin D. ↑,
82', Bislimi U. ↓, Delcroix H. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 0.

Lugano is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

St. Gallen is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lugano might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Lugano: 42.36% St. Gallen: 5.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	9	8	1	0	27:7	20	25
5	St. Gallen	9	4	1	4	16:19	-3	13

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.62%, but this team recently wins 77% of matches with these odds.

St. Gallen - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.25%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
12.09.26	Lugano - Young Boys	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Basel - Lugano	1:3 ✺
03.09.26	Lugano - Servette	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Sion - Lugano	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Lugano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWWWT
- FC St. Gallen
Swiss Super League
12.09.26	St. Gallen - Sion	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Servette - St. Gallen	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Grasshoppers - St. Gallen	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	St. Gallen - Thun	3:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	St. Gallen - Nordsjælland	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
10.05.26	Lugano - St. Gallen	1:2
17.03.26	St. Gallen - Lugano	1:1
26.11.25	Lugano - St. Gallen	1:3
13.09.25	St. Gallen - Lugano	1:0
13.04.25	Lugano - St. Gallen	1:1
05.02.25	St. Gallen - Lugano	2:1
01.09.24	Lugano - St. Gallen	1:1

Upcoming Matches