Match Info

Date: 16 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Gonzalez Esteban J. A. (Esp)


	Málaga		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.3	4.4
	1.85	3.35	4.5
	1.84	3.25	4.4
	1.92	3.33	4.68
				Watch
	1.86	3.3	4.55	Watch
	1.87	3.3	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.16)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	4.5 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
50.6%

Draw
28.5%

Lugo
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.1%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

28.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Málaga's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56%	24%	20%

Málaga - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 14 - 56%). Lugo will win (votes: 5 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 36.5% – 75.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Málaga has the most likely position - 22 (19.17%), has project points - 44, has currently - 6, has a good chance of relegated (51%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (16.47%), has project points - 45, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 27, importance 46, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Málaga won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Málaga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Málaga is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Málaga won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Málaga won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
12.10.22	Leganés - Málaga	1:0 ✺
09.10.22	Málaga - FC Andorra	0:0 ✺
01.10.22	Racing Santander - Málaga	0:0 ✺
24.09.22	Málaga - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
19.09.22	Tenerife - Málaga	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTTTL
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
12.10.22	Lugo - Las Palmas	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:1 ✺
02.10.22	Ibiza - Lugo	3:2 ✺
25.09.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0 ✺
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
28.05.22	Lugo - Málaga	1:0
23.10.21	Málaga - Lugo	1:0
04.04.21	Lugo - Málaga	0:1
27.11.20	Málaga - Lugo	2:2
23.06.20	Lugo - Málaga	0:0
21.12.19	Málaga - Lugo	1:1
19.01.19	Málaga - Lugo	2:1

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