Match Info

Date: 12 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Sanchez Lopez R. (Esp)


	Lugo		Las Palmas

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.15
	3.8	3.2	2.05
	3.35	3.05	2.2
	3.67	3.08	2.29
				Watch
	3.64	2.94	2.24	Watch
	3.45	3.1	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.4)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	2.19 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
26.6%

Draw
30.5%

Las Palmas
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

30.2%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

29.8%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Las Palmas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.8%	34.8%	30.4%

Lugo - Las Palmas Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Las Palmas will win (votes: 7 - 30.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugo: 15.3% – 54.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 18 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (12.89%), has project points - 47, has currently - 9, has a chance of relegated (41%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Las Palmas has the most likely position - 1 (14.41%), has project points - 67, has currently - 17, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a chance of promoted (34%), has a small chance of win league (14%).

This event has quality 32, importance 45, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1.

Lugo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Las Palmas is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Las Palmas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Lugo won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 20-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
08.10.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:1 ✺
02.10.22	Ibiza - Lugo	3:2 ✺
25.09.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0 ✺
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1 ✺
10.09.22	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTLL
- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga2
08.10.22	Las Palmas - Ibiza	0:0 ✺
01.10.22	Mirandés - Las Palmas	3:3 ✺
26.09.22	Las Palmas - Granada	2:0 ✺
18.09.22	Racing Santander - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
09.09.22	Las Palmas - Leganés	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
26.02.22	Las Palmas - Lugo	2:2
20.10.21	Lugo - Las Palmas	2:0
01.04.21	Las Palmas - Lugo	6:1
02.12.20	Lugo - Las Palmas	1:1
20.06.20	Las Palmas - Lugo	1:0
05.10.19	Lugo - Las Palmas	0:2
28.04.19	Las Palmas - Lugo	4:1

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