Match Info

Date: 10 September 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Galech I. (Esp)


	Lugo		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.2	2.85	2.25
	3.3	3	2.35
	3.2	2.95	2.32
	3.58	3.07	2.37
				Watch
	3.35	3.18	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.88)	3.03 ↓ (3.1)	2.3 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
28.1%

Draw
31.1%

Deportivo Alavés
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

30.2%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

29.8%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	33.3%	38.1%

Lugo - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 6 - 28.6%). Alavés will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 17.3% – 58.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Lugo has the most likely position - 21 (7.79%), has project points - 50, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (29%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (9%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Alavés has the most likely position - 3 (8.48%), has project points - 66, has currently - 8, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (31%), has a chance of promoted (23%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

This event has quality 32, importance 33, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Alavés will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
04.09.22	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:2 ✺
27.08.22	Lugo - Leganés	1:0 ✺
21.08.22	Tenerife - Lugo	1:1 ✺
15.08.22	Lugo - Albacete Balompié	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Lugo - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WWTLW
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga2
03.09.22	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
28.08.22	Ibiza - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
19.08.22	Deportivo Alavés - Mirandés	1:0 ✺
13.08.22	Leganés - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
19.03.16	Deportivo Alavés - Lugo	0:0
18.10.15	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
22.03.15	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	3:2
18.10.14	Deportivo Alavés - Lugo	1:0
18.05.14	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	0:1
14.12.13	Deportivo Alavés - Lugo	2:1

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