Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 41

Date: 20 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Frances R. (Esp)


	Lugo		Huesca

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.75	Watch
	2.75	2.87	2.6
	2.75	2.88	2.8	Watch
	2.97	2.92	2.82
	2.79	2.99	2.74	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (3)	2.92 ↑ (2.8)	2.74 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
33.5%

Draw
32.2%

Huesca
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

32%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

33.1%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Huesca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Huesca than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Huesca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	29.2%	45.8%

Lugo - Huesca Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 6 - 25%). Huesca will win (votes: 11 - 45.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 29.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Huesca: 25.9% – 65.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (83.14%), project points - 30, currently - 28, already of relegated.

Huesca has the most likely position - 18 (24.62%), project points - 52, currently - 49, not chance of relegated, not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 24, very small importance 0, small match rating 12. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 2.

Lugo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Huesca is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Huesca will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 12-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
13.05.23	Granada - Lugo	2:0 ✺
07.05.23	Lugo - FC Andorra	2:2 ✺
01.05.23	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	3:1 ✺
23.04.23	Lugo - Málaga	0:2 ✺
15.04.23	Real Oviedo - Lugo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLL
- SD Huesca
Spanish LaLiga2
14.05.23	Huesca - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
06.05.23	Leganés - Huesca	2:1 ✺
01.05.23	Málaga - Huesca	0:0 ✺
24.04.23	Huesca - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
16.04.23	FC Andorra - Huesca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
08.10.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:1
20.02.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:0
13.09.21	Lugo - Huesca	3:2
25.01.20	Huesca - Lugo	2:1
19.10.19	Lugo - Huesca	3:2
21.05.18	Lugo - Huesca	0:2
17.12.17	Huesca - Lugo	3:0

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