Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 40

Date: 13 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes (Granada)

Referee: De La Fuente Ramos O. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports Max
Portugal	Eleven Sports


	Granada		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.25	12	Watch
	1.26	5.25	9.5
	1.25	5.8	11	Watch
	1.26	6.06	13.22
	1.26	5.75	11.25	Watch
	1.28	5.4	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.35)	5.59 ↑ (4.5)	11.16 ↑ (9.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Granada
74.6%

Draw
16.9%

Lugo
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

20.7%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

13.1%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Granada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Granada's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Granada than the current prediction. (-30.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Granada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Granada - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Granada will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Lugo will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Granada: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Granada has the most likely position - 3 (22.1%), project points - 72, currently - 66, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), a good chance of promoted (58%), a chance of win league (21%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (70.18%), project points - 30, currently - 28, already of relegated.

This event has small quality 27, importance 50, match rating 38. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Granada is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lugo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lugo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Granada is absolute favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Granada won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Granada won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
05.05.23	Deportivo Alavés - Granada	1:1 ✺
30.04.23	Granada - Eibar	1:1 ✺
23.04.23	Racing Santander - Granada	1:0 ✺
15.04.23	Granada - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
08.04.23	Zaragoza - Granada	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTLWL
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
07.05.23	Lugo - FC Andorra	2:2 ✺
01.05.23	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	3:1 ✺
23.04.23	Lugo - Málaga	0:2 ✺
15.04.23	Real Oviedo - Lugo	2:1 ✺
07.04.23	Lugo - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
17.12.22	Lugo - Granada	1:0
20.04.19	Lugo - Granada	1:2
26.08.18	Granada - Lugo	1:1
03.03.18	Lugo - Granada	2:1
08.10.17	Granada - Lugo	2:0

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