Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Lusitânia		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2	3.35	3.55
	2.08	3.36	3.9
	2.01	3.35	3.72	Watch
	2	3.1	3.5
	2.03	3.28	3.63	Watch
	2.05	3.14	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.9)	3.25 ↓ (3.55)	3.64 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
46.1%

Draw
28.5%

Portimonense
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

26.3%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

22.6%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Lusitânia - Portimonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 5. Silverio (C) 4. Collard D. 3. Josue Sa 29. Cerveira T. 27. Fabinho 8. Tokinho Doria 11. Pereira M. 12. Arsenio 77. Tiago Dias 20. Do Marcolino F.	77. Cibois S. (G) 23. Ze Gabriel 33. Grolli D. 6. Neves S. 18. Mamede 8. Lobato S. 47. Cagro W. 16. Thauan Lara 10. Mateus Santos 93. Welinton Junior 5. Heitor (C)
Substitutes
22. Faria B. 21. Joao Vasco 80. Manel 7. Martins R. 33. Ortiz N. 19. Palacios A. 99. Platiny 1. Ricardo M. (G) 88. Teixeira M.	2. Abel A. 90. Canario F. 66. Canji A. 21. Dauda M. 31. Edney 73. Junior M. 37. Mateus Sarara 26. Maycon Cleiton (G) 15. Xavier
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Fernandes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Cerveira T. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Silverio ⚽, Fabinho (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
48', 2 - 0, Tiago Dias ⚽,
56', Ze Gabriel ↓, Edney ↑,
64', Do Marcolino F. ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Lobato S. ⚽,
79', Arsenio ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
79', Tiago Dias ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
84', Silverio 🟨,
84', Thauan Lara ↓, Canario F. ↑,
84', Mateus Santos ↓, Dauda M. ↑,
88', Pereira M. ↓, Platiny ↑,
88', Silverio ↓, Faria B. ↑,
90+8', 2 - 2, Welinton Junior ⚽,
90+12', Heitor 🟨,
90+13', 3 - 2, Platiny ⚽,
90+13', Platiny 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Recent performances by Lusitânia have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portimonense has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lusitânia could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Portimonense - the odds 3.83 are the expected chance of winning is 24.42%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
30.11.25	Porto B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Lusitânia - Torreense	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1 ✺
04.11.25	Académico de Viseu - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
29.10.25	Lusitânia - Vizela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTLT
- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
30.11.25	Portimonense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Porto B - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Portimonense - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
30.10.25	Portimonense - Torreense	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Portimonense	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

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