Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 22

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday


	Lusitano GC		Moncarapachense

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.9	5.25
	1.73	3.25	4.6
	1.66	3.3	5.52
	1.85	3.18	4.44
	1.73	3.25	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.49)	3.38 ↓ (4)	4.88 ↓ (5.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
54.1%

Draw
27.1%

Moncarapachense
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

22.8%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

21.8%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lusitano GC's form might have worsened.

Moncarapachense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lusitano GC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Lusitano GC - Moncarapachense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Lopes M. ⚽,
12', 2 - 0, Davou S. ⚽,
18', 3 - 0, Lopes D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
83', 4 - 0, Davou S. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 4).

Lusitano GC in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Moncarapachense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Lusitano GC is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lusitano GC to win the game is with odds 1.49.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lusitano GC won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1 (average 0:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Lusitano GC won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
02.03.25	Estrela Vendas Novas - Lusitano GC	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	Lusitano GC - Fabril do Barreiro	4:0 ✺
16.02.25	Operário - Lusitano GC	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Lusitano GC - Barreirense	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Lusitano GC - Serpa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWTWW
- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
02.03.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Moura - Moncarapachense	0:2 ✺
16.02.25	Moncarapachense - Amora	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Lagoa - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
02.02.25	Moncarapachense - Estrela da Amadora B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.11.24	Moncarapachense - Lusitano GC	1:0
03.03.24	Lusitano GC - Moncarapachense	0:0
05.11.23	Moncarapachense - Lusitano GC	0:0

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