Match Info

LaLiga2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lax S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport Events, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	16:00	DSports 4
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	05:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	21:00	DAZN
Brazil	16:00	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV2 Play
Ecuador	14:00	DSports 4
France	21:00	beIN Connect
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Greece	22:00	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	21:00	Spiler2 TV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect
Mexico	13:00	Sky Sport
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	07:00	beIN Connect
Philippines	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ Sport 2, CANAL+ Sport 4
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1
Romania	22:00	Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Events, SuperSport Variety 4
South America	—	DGO Latin America
Spain	21:00	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 2
Thailand	02:00	beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	S Sport+
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United Kingdom	20:00	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Málaga		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.10
	2.18	3.15	3.3	Watch
	2.29	3.25	3.51
	2.27	3.21	3.33	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.1
	2.26	3.25	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.3)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)	3.31 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
42.3%

Draw
29.4%

Almería
28.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

29.3%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.1%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Málaga - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Almería will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 59.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Málaga (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 20. Montero J. 31. Rafita 10. Larrubia D. 12. Dotor C. 37. Rodriguez R. 35. Ochoa A. 21. Nino A. 22. Lorenzo D.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 17. Lopy D. 29. Dzodic S. 2. Puigmal A. 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. (C) 24. de la Fuente M.
Substitutes
5. Brasanac D. 9. Chupe 6. Enriquez R. 2. Gabilondo J. 14. Garcia V. 17. Jauregi E. 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 23. Merino I. 11. Munoz J. 36. Recio A. 18. Sanchez D.	14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 12. Leo Baptistao 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Funes J.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Rafita 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ochoa A. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
56', Puigmal A. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
63', Nino A. ↓, Chupe ↑,
63', Rodriguez R. ↓, Merino I. ↑,
68', de la Fuente M. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
78', Lorenzo D. ↓, Enriquez R. ↑,
83', Arribas S. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
90', Merino I. 🟨,
90', Larrubia D. ↓, Lobete J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Málaga is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

Almería is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2.

Málaga is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Almería's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Málaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Málaga will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Málaga: Juanpe (Muscle Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Málaga: Abaida H. (Muscle Injury) Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Galilea E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Embarba A. (Injury) Horta A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Almeria	12	8	2	2	23:10	13	26

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga2 for now

Almeria: 18.62%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
10.06.26	Málaga - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
07.06.26	Las Palmas - Málaga	0:1 ✺
31.05.26	Zaragoza - Málaga	0:2 ✺
24.05.26	Málaga - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Ceuta - Málaga	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TWWTW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
09.06.26	Almería - Castellón	3:2 ✺
06.06.26	Castellón - Almería	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Almería - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Almería - Málaga	1:2
Spanish LaLiga2
01.03.25	Almería - Málaga	2:2
08.12.24	Málaga - Almería	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Málaga - Almería	0:1
27.07.23	Almería - Málaga	0:1

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