Match Info

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday


	Málaga		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.50	2.15	Watch
	3.20	3.50	2.15
	3.25	3.45	2.20
	3.39	3.70	2.19
	3.06	3.64	2.22	Watch
	3.35	3.50	2.15
	3.29	3.64	2.29	Watch
	3.25	3.55	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (3.13)	3.56 ↓ (3.58)	2.19 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
29.4%

Draw
26.9%

Real Sociedad
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

26.6%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

26.1%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Málaga - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Real Sociedad will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 20th in the Relegation - LaLiga2 and 6th in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2.

Málaga is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Real Sociedad has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Málaga could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Real Sociedad has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Real Sociedad is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Málaga has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:16 (averaging 1.1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Málaga against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:9 goals (averaging 1:1.1 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Sociedad: 0.33% Malaga: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12:15	-3	13
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4:13	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Real Sociedad - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 43.04%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga
09.10.26	Málaga - Espanyol	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Getafe - Málaga	1:0 ✺
17.09.26	Málaga - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Celta de Vigo - Málaga	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Málaga - Levante	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLLTT
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
11.10.26	Real Sociedad - Deportivo A Coruña	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Valencia - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Real Sociedad - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
07.01.24	Málaga - Real Sociedad	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
22.04.18	Málaga - Real Sociedad	2:0
10.12.17	Real Sociedad - Málaga	0:2
14.05.17	Real Sociedad - Málaga	2:2
16.01.17	Málaga - Real Sociedad	0:2
27.02.16	Real Sociedad - Málaga	1:1
03.10.15	Málaga - Real Sociedad	3:1

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