Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 21

Date: 29 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)


	Mérida AD		San Sebastian Reyes

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	4
	1.93	2.95	3.75
	2	2.9	3.75
	1.96	3.05	3.7
	1.9	3.06	4.88
	1.94	3.16	4.1
	1.97	3.05	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.6)	3.04 ↑ (2.75)	3.99 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
46.9%

Draw
30.1%

San Sebastian Reyes
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

33.2%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

31.5%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mérida AD's performance.

San Sebastian Reyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Sebastian Reyes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mérida AD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Sebastian Reyes than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Sebastian Reyes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mérida AD - San Sebastian Reyes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 10 and 14).

Mérida AD is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

SS Reyes has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

SS Reyes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mérida AD will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.01.23	Mérida AD - San Fernando	0:1 ✺
15.01.23	Leonesa - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
08.01.23	Mérida AD - Alcorcón	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
21.12.22	Mérida AD - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.12.22	Córdoba - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLLLW
- San Sebastian Reyes
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.01.23	San Sebastian Reyes - Córdoba	0:0 ✺
15.01.23	Ferrol - San Sebastian Reyes	3:0 ✺
08.01.23	San Sebastian Reyes - Rayo Majadahonda	1:2 ✺
18.12.22	Leonesa - San Sebastian Reyes	4:1 ✺
11.12.22	San Sebastian Reyes - Fuenlabrada	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.11.22	San Sebastian Reyes - Mérida AD	1:0

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