Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 29

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Maardu linnastaadion (Maardu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Maardu Linnameeskond		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.14	3.75	2.48
	1.96	3.99	2.94
	1.98	4.02	2.95	Watch
	1.93	3.80	2.90
	1.97	3.90	2.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.32)	3.89 ↑ (3.88)	2.85 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 0.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maardu Linnameeskond
45.2%

Draw
23.2%

Tallinna Kalev
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

23.1%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

23.1%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maardu Linnameeskond has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maardu Linnameeskond's performance.

Tallinna Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tallinna Kalev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maardu Linnameeskond than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maardu Linnameeskond that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tallinna Kalev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Maardu Linnameeskond - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maardu Linnameeskond won 1.

Maardu Linnameeskond is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kalev is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kalev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Maardu Linnameeskond won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:33. (average 1.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Maardu Linnameeskond won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:10. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Tallinna Kalev	30	11	7	12	52:55	-3	40
10	Maardu	36	12	5	19	45:59	-14	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maardu Linnameeskond
Estonian Esiliiga
06.09.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - Nõmme United U21	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - Levadia Tallinn U21	4:2 ✺
24.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:3 ✺
20.08.26	Elva - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - FC Tallinn	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWLW
- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga
10.09.26	Nõmme United U21 - Tallinna Kalev	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev	5:0 ✺
24.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:3 ✺
20.08.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tallinna Kalev	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
24.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:3
03.07.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	3:3
03.04.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - Tallinna Kalev	1:1
21.11.21	Maardu Linnameeskond - Tallinna Kalev	1:1
23.09.21	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	4:2
02.08.21	Maardu Linnameeskond - Tallinna Kalev	1:2
09.05.21	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	2:2

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