Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 3
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Israel	Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Machida Zelvia		FC Seoul

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.9	4.8
	1.43	4.45	6.3	Watch
	1.46	4.16	6.62	Watch
				Watch
	1.53	4.58	5.99	Watch
	1.7	3.97	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.93)	4.21 ↑ (3.75)	5.66 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
60.8%

Draw
22.5%

FC Seoul
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

25.4%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

25.4%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Machida Zelvia's performance.

FC Seoul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FC Seoul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Machida Zelvia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Seoul than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FC Seoul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.5%	4.5%	0%

Machida Zelvia - FC Seoul Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Seoul (2.07) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Machida Zelvia will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Seoul (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 50. Okamura D. 3. Shoji G. (C) 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 19. Nakayama Y. 26. Hayashi K. 10. Na Sang-Ho 7. Soma Y. 90. Oh Se-Hun	21. Choi Chul-Won (G) 16. Choi Jun 40. Park Seong-Hoon 20. Lee Han-Do 63. Park Soo-Il 7. Jeong Seung-Won 29. Ryu Jae-Moon 8. Lee Seung-Mo 77. Lucas Silva 45. Dugandzic M. 10. Lingard J. (C)
Substitutes
44. Arai Y. (G) 28. Cha Je-Hoon 15. Duke M. 9. Fujio S. 2. Imai T. 11. Masuyama A. 13. Morita T. (G) 20. Nishimura T. 22. Numata T. 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 23. Shirasaki R.	5. Al Arab Y. 70. Anderson Oliveira 11. Cheon Seong-Hoon 9. Cho Young-Wook 41. Hwang Do-Yun 18. Jeong Tae-Wook 37. Jung Han-Min 31. Kang Hyeon-Mu (G) 22. Kim Jin-Su 27. Moon Seon-Min 88. Park Jang Han-Gyeol 14. Son Seung-Beom
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Kim Gi-Dong

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
46', Jeong Seung-Won ↓, Moon Seon-Min ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Dugandzic M. ⚽, Lingard J. (A),
63', Mae H. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
63', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Nishimura T. ↑,
73', Lucas Silva ↓, Anderson Oliveira ↑,
73', Dugandzic M. ↓, Cho Young-Wook ↑,
76', Lee Seung-Mo ↓, Hwang Do-Yun ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Mochizuki H. ⚽,
83', Dresevic I. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
83', Soma Y. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
85', Lingard J. ↓, Cheon Seong-Hoon ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Machida Zelvia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Seoul's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Seoul may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Machida Zelvia is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Machida Zelvia - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 49.31%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
12.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia	5:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	3:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
23.08.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Machida Zelvia	0:0 ✺
20.08.25	Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLWTW
- FC Seoul
South Korean K-League 1
13.09.25	Gangwon - FC Seoul	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	FC Seoul - Anyang	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	3:2 ✺
17.08.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - FC Seoul	5:2 ✺
08.08.25	FC Seoul - Daegu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLT

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