Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 5

Date: 2 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Conselheiro Galvao (Rio de Janeiro)


	Madureira		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	3.85	3.25	1.95
	4.38	3.26	1.86
	4.28	3.29	1.88	Watch
	3.9	2.9	1.85
	4.34	3.18	1.8
	4.33	3.33	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↓ (5.62)	3.2 ↓ (4.18)	1.87 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madureira
22%

Draw
28.8%

Vasco da Gama
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.6%

22.3%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madureira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Madureira's performance.

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vasco da Gama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Madureira - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Madureira will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Madureira (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Vasco (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.75 - Madureira (1.20) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Madureira (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Madureira (votes: 6 - 50%). Vasco (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Neguete (G) 16. Julio Cesar 3. Marcao 4. Jean 6. Matheus Juliao 8. Fuba 19. Rodrigo Lindoso (C) 21. Everton 10. Juninho 7. Jaco 9. Geovane Maranhao	1. Leo Jardim (C) 2. Rodriguez J. 29. Rojas J. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 88. Cauan Barros 25. Hugo Moura 17. Moreira N. 3. Tche Tche 11. Andres Gomez 20. Brenner
Substitutes
5. Adriano 17. Arthur 2. Caua Coutinho 13. Daniel Felipe 22. Fashanu M. 15. Filipe Claudino 18. Hericles 23. Isaias 20. Ricardo Oliveira 11. Vinicius Balotelli 14. Wallace Camilo 31. Yan (G)	28. Adson 74. Andrey Fernandes 46. Cuesta C. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 14. Guilherme Estrella 18. Hinestroza M. 60. Joao Vitor 98. JP 90. Minete D. 23. Thiago Mendes 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Felipe Surian	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Rodriguez J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Robert Renan ↓, Cuesta C. ↑,
58', Jaco ↓, Fashanu M. ↑,
58', Geovane Maranhao ↓, Isaias ↑,
63', Brenner ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
63', Moreira N. ↓, David ↑,
65', Everton 🟨,
69', Everton ↓, Vinicius Balotelli ↑,
69', Juninho ↓, Wallace Camilo ↑,
73', Rojas J. ↓, Adson ↑,
74', Cuesta C. 🟨,
80', Fuba ↓, Adriano ↑,
80', Lucas Piton ↓, Minete D. ↑,
90+3', Wallace Camilo 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Madureira won 0.

Vasco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Madureira may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vasco is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Madureira won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 9:27. (average 0.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Madureira won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.8:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madureira EC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
26.01.26	Madureira - Portuguesa RJ	0:2 ✺
22.01.26	Madureira - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Bangu - Madureira	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	Fluminense - Madureira	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
27.08.25	Madureira - Maricá	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWLL
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
15.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Maricá	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:0
25.01.24	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:0
14.01.23	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	0:0
06.02.22	Madureira - Vasco da Gama	1:3
08.05.21	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:1
01.05.21	Madureira - Vasco da Gama	1:0
27.03.21	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:2

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