Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation - Final

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wolfsburg		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.95	4.45	Watch
	1.74	4.05	4.85
	1.73	3.93	4.7	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.4
	1.77	3.96	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.99)	3.9 ↑ (3.6)	4.61 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
54.9%

Draw
24.4%

Paderborn
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

26.6%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

26.7%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wolfsburg's performance.

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wolfsburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Wolfsburg - Paderborn Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Wolfsburg (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Wolfsburg will win (35 of 43 users predict this - 81.4%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.77% – 93.03%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 32. Svanberg M. 26. Kumbedi S. 31. Gerhardt Y. 24. Eriksen C. (C) 21. Maehle J. 11. Daghim A. 17. Pejcinovic D.	41. Seimen D. (G) 22. Hansen M. 25. Scheller T. 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. (C) 7. Bilbija F. 5. Castaneda S. 3. Sticker J. 2. Muller R. 26. Klaas S. 30. Marino S.
Substitutes
18. Adjetey J. 9. Amoura M. 15. Jenz M. 19. Lindstrom J. 10. Majer L. 40. Paredes K. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 25. Zehnter A.	9. Batzner N. 20. Gotze F. 33. Hoffmeier M. 8. Kinsombi D. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.
Coaches
Hecking D.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Muller R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Klaas S. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
60', Muller R. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
65', Daghim A. ↓, Amoura M. ↑,
65', Svanberg M. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
74', Gerhardt Y. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
78', Marino S. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
82', Castaneda S. 🟨,
85', Bilbija F. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
85', Kumbedi S. ↓, Paredes K. ↑,
88', Majer L. 🟨,
90+2', Sticker J. 🟨,
90+4', Sticker J. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Wolfsburg is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Groin Injury) Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury) Vini Souza (Yellow Cards) Wimmer P. (Thigh Injury) Wind J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Paderborn: Baur M. (Yellow Cards) Obermair R. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:11. (average 2.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Paderborn: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Paderborn	5	1	1	3	3:7	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Wolfsburg - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 48.06%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
16.05.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLTTW
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
17.05.26	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Paderborn - Karlsruher	2:2 ✺
03.05.26	Elversberg - Paderborn	5:1 ✺
26.04.26	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Hannover - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.01.22	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	5:4
German Bundesliga
02.02.20	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	2:4
31.08.19	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1
Club Friendly
15.11.18	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:2
German Bundesliga
10.05.15	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	1:3
14.12.14	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1

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