Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation - Final

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	20:30	Tring Sport 1
Andorra	20:30	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	15:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	22:30	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Australia	04:30	beIN Connect
Austria	20:30	SAT1, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	22:30	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	20:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	14:30	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:30	Arena Sport 2
Bulgaria	21:30	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Colombia	13:30	ESPN
Croatia	20:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:30	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Ecuador	13:30	ESPN
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	22:30	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	20:30	SAT1, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport News, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	02:30	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	20:30	Arena 4
Iceland	18:30	Viaplay
India	00:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	01:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Japan	03:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:30	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	00:30	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	01:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Malta	20:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	12:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	21:30	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	06:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	20:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	23:30	Tapmad
Paraguay	14:30	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	02:30	beIN Sports 3
Poland	20:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	21:30	Prima Sport 2
Russia	21:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	21:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	20:30	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	02:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	20:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	03:30	Coupang Play
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	20:30	SAT1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	23:30	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	21:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	23:30	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	21:30	Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	19:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	15:30	Disney+
Usa	14:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	23:30	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	14:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
International	18:30	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.95	4.45	Watch
	1.74	4.05	4.85
	1.73	3.93	4.7	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.4
	1.77	3.96	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.99)	3.9 ↑ (3.6)	4.61 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
54.9%

Draw
24.4%

Paderborn
20.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.1%

26.6%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

26.7%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wolfsburg's performance.

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wolfsburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Wolfsburg - Paderborn Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Wolfsburg (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Wolfsburg will win (35 of 43 users predict this - 81.4%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.77% – 93.03%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 32. Svanberg M. 26. Kumbedi S. 31. Gerhardt Y. 24. Eriksen C. (C) 21. Maehle J. 11. Daghim A. 17. Pejcinovic D.	41. Seimen D. (G) 22. Hansen M. 25. Scheller T. 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. (C) 7. Bilbija F. 5. Castaneda S. 3. Sticker J. 2. Muller R. 26. Klaas S. 30. Marino S.
Substitutes
18. Adjetey J. 9. Amoura M. 15. Jenz M. 19. Lindstrom J. 10. Majer L. 40. Paredes K. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 25. Zehnter A.	9. Batzner N. 20. Gotze F. 33. Hoffmeier M. 8. Kinsombi D. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.
Coaches
Hecking D.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Muller R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Klaas S. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
60', Muller R. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
65', Daghim A. ↓, Amoura M. ↑,
65', Svanberg M. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
74', Gerhardt Y. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
78', Marino S. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
82', Castaneda S. 🟨,
85', Bilbija F. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
85', Kumbedi S. ↓, Paredes K. ↑,
88', Majer L. 🟨,
90+2', Sticker J. 🟨,
90+4', Sticker J. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Wolfsburg is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Groin Injury) Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury) Vini Souza (Yellow Cards) Wimmer P. (Thigh Injury) Wind J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Paderborn: Baur M. (Yellow Cards) Obermair R. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:11. (average 2.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	6:9	-3	8

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Paderborn: 0.12%

Last Results with these Odds

Wolfsburg - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 48.06%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
16.05.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLTTW
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
17.05.26	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Paderborn - Karlsruher	2:2 ✺
03.05.26	Elversberg - Paderborn	5:1 ✺
26.04.26	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Hannover - Paderborn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.01.22	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	5:4
German Bundesliga
02.02.20	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	2:4
31.08.19	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1
Club Friendly
15.11.18	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:2
German Bundesliga
10.05.15	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	1:3
14.12.14	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1

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