Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation - Final

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:30	Disney+
Australia	04:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	20:30	SAT1
Bolivia	14:30	ESPN 5
Brazil	15:30	SporTV
Canada	14:30	DAZN Canada
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:30	TV3 Sport
Ecuador	13:30	ESPN 5
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:30	beIN Sports 1
Germany	20:30	SAT1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport News, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 3
Hungary	20:30	Arena 4
India	00:00	Sony LIV
Japan	03:30	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	02:30	beIN Connect
Mexico	12:30	Sky Sport
Paraguay	14:30	ESPN 5
Peru	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 1
Romania	21:30	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Saudi Arabia	21:30	MBC Shahid
Slovakia	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	20:30	SAT1
Turkey	21:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
United Kingdom	19:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	15:30	Disney+
Usa	14:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	14:30	Disney+, ESPN 5


	Paderborn		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.6	2
	3.45	3.45	2.12	Watch
	3.47	3.48	2.21
	1.75	3.07	6.05	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2
	3.59	3.52	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (3.16)	3.4 ↓ (3.44)	2.66 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
31.6%

Draw
30%

Wolfsburg
38.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30%

27.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

27.4%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.3%	3.8%	78.8%

Paderborn - Wolfsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 9 - 17.6%). Wolfsburg will win (votes: 40 - 78.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 3.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wolfsburg: 67.1% – 89.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Wolfsburg (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Wolfsburg will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Seimen D. (G) 22. Hansen M. 25. Scheller T. 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. (C) 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 2. Muller R. 7. Bilbija F. 26. Klaas S. 30. Marino S.	1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 26. Kumbedi S. 32. Svanberg M. 5. Vini Souza 24. Eriksen C. (C) 21. Maehle J. 11. Daghim A. 17. Pejcinovic D.
Substitutes
9. Batzner N. 20. Gotze F. 33. Hoffmeier M. 8. Kinsombi D. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.	18. Adjetey J. 9. Amoura M. 31. Gerhardt Y. 15. Jenz M. 19. Lindstrom J. 40. Paredes K. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 23. Wind J.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Hecking D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Pejcinovic D. ⚽, Daghim A. (A),
11', Bilbija F. 🟨,
11', Maehle J. 🟨,
12', Pervan P. 🟨,
14', Maehle J. 🟨,
24', Vini Souza 🟨,
27', Curda L. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Bilbija F. ⚽, Brackelmann C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Svanberg M. 🟨,
70', Marino S. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
70', Klaas S. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
74', Muller R. ↓, Mohr N. ↑,
74', Brackelmann C. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
81', Svanberg M. ↓, Paredes K. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
98', Daghim A. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
98', Pejcinovic D. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
99', Baur M. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
100', 2 - 1, Curda L. ⚽, Michel S. (A),
106', Kumbedi S. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
106', Vavro D. ↓, Amoura M. ↑,
119', Michel S. 🟨,
120+2', Koulierakis K. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Wolfsburg might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1.5:3.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Paderborn	7	2	2	3	6:9	-3	8

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Paderborn: 0.12%

Last Results with these Odds

Wolfsburg - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.37%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German Bundesliga
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
17.05.26	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Paderborn - Karlsruher	2:2 ✺
03.05.26	Elversberg - Paderborn	5:1 ✺
26.04.26	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWTLL
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0
Club Friendly
04.01.22	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	5:4
German Bundesliga
02.02.20	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	2:4
31.08.19	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1
Club Friendly
15.11.18	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:2
German Bundesliga
10.05.15	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	1:3
14.12.14	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1

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