Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation - Final

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
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Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
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Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5


	Paderborn		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.6	2
	3.45	3.45	2.12	Watch
	3.47	3.48	2.21
	1.75	3.07	6.05	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2
	3.59	3.52	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (3.16)	3.4 ↓ (3.44)	2.66 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
31.6%

Draw
30%

Wolfsburg
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

27.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

27.3%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.3%	3.8%	78.8%

Paderborn - Wolfsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 9 - 17.6%). Wolfsburg will win (votes: 40 - 78.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 3.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wolfsburg: 67.1% – 89.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Wolfsburg (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Wolfsburg will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Seimen D. (G) 22. Hansen M. 25. Scheller T. 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. (C) 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 2. Muller R. 7. Bilbija F. 26. Klaas S. 30. Marino S.	1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 26. Kumbedi S. 32. Svanberg M. 5. Vini Souza 24. Eriksen C. (C) 21. Maehle J. 11. Daghim A. 17. Pejcinovic D.
Substitutes
9. Batzner N. 20. Gotze F. 33. Hoffmeier M. 8. Kinsombi D. 11. Michel S. 24. Mohr N. 10. Okpala K. 1. Schubert M. (G) 27. Tigges S.	18. Adjetey J. 9. Amoura M. 31. Gerhardt Y. 15. Jenz M. 19. Lindstrom J. 40. Paredes K. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 23. Wind J.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Hecking D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Pejcinovic D. ⚽, Daghim A. (A),
11', Bilbija F. 🟨,
11', Maehle J. 🟨,
12', Pervan P. 🟨,
14', Maehle J. 🟨,
24', Vini Souza 🟨,
27', Curda L. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Bilbija F. ⚽, Brackelmann C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Svanberg M. 🟨,
70', Marino S. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
70', Klaas S. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
74', Muller R. ↓, Mohr N. ↑,
74', Brackelmann C. ↓, Gotze F. ↑,
81', Svanberg M. ↓, Paredes K. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
98', Daghim A. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
98', Pejcinovic D. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
99', Baur M. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
100', 2 - 1, Curda L. ⚽, Michel S. (A),
106', Kumbedi S. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
106', Vavro D. ↓, Amoura M. ↑,
119', Michel S. 🟨,
120+2', Koulierakis K. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Wolfsburg might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1.5:3.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Paderborn: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Paderborn	5	1	1	3	3:7	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Paderborn - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 30.04%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Wolfsburg - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.37%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German Bundesliga
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
17.05.26	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Paderborn - Karlsruher	2:2 ✺
03.05.26	Elversberg - Paderborn	5:1 ✺
26.04.26	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWTLL
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0
Club Friendly
04.01.22	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	5:4
German Bundesliga
02.02.20	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	2:4
31.08.19	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1
Club Friendly
15.11.18	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:2
German Bundesliga
10.05.15	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	1:3
14.12.14	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	1:1

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