Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santa Lucía (Malacatán) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	18:00	Claro Sports
Venezuela	20:00	Inter


	Malacateco		Aurora

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	4.75
	1.55	3.5	4.9
	1.64	3.7	5.15
	1.62	3.81	5.3	Watch
	1.57	3.55	5
	1.54	3.78	5.12	Watch
	1.59	3.65	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.61)	3.68 ↑ (3.45)	5.03 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Malacateco
57.3%

Draw
24.6%

Aurora
18%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.3%

25.8%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

26%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Malacateco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Aurora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Malacateco than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Malacateco - Aurora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Guzman A. (G) . Andrade N. . Castanon J. . Chun M. . de Leon I. . Esqueda Romero J. A. . Meneses R. . Morales F. . Ochoa J. . Quinones E. . Vasquez G.	22. Sanchez L. (G) 57. Aguilar L. 29. Del Cid H. 25. Diaz A. 14. Echeverria Perez A. J. 27. Flores C. 15. Garcia K. 18. Grajeda J. 67. Hernandez R. 5. Lemus J. 13. Morales H.
Substitutes
. Comayagua R. . Guzman Miron D. J. . Paz V. . Perez S. . Ramirez K. . Rendon C. (G) . Sanchez D. . Soto A. . Trigueno J.	16. Batres J. 49. Campos G. 2. Cardona L. 11. Ibarguen E. 12. Motta P. 1. Navas D. (G) 7. Rodriguez J. 9. Ruiz D. 31. Urias V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Morales H. ⚽,
31', Morales H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aguilar L. ↓, Urias V. ↑,
46', Morales H. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
46', Echeverria Perez A. J. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
46', Castanon J. ↓, Comayagua R. ↑,
61', Vasquez G. ↓, Paz V. ↑,
61', Morales F. ↓, Ramirez K. ↑,
63', Ruiz D. 🟨,
68', de Leon I. ↓, Trigueno J. ↑,
72', Grajeda J. 🟨,
76', Lemus J. ↓, Cardona L. ↑,
77', Ochoa J. 🟨,
81', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
88', 0 - 2, Urias V. ⚽,
90', Del Cid H. ↓, Ibarguen E. ↑,
90+3', Meneses R. 🟨,
90+5', Garcia K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Malacateco won 1.

Malacateco has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aurora shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Malacateco may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Malacateco carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Malacateco has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:6 (averaging 0.6:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Malacateco against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Malacateco	17	5	4	8	18:25	-7	19

Last Results with these Odds

Malacateco - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 55.27%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Malacateco
Guatemala Liga Nacional
25.10.26	Deportivo San Pedro - Malacateco	2:2 ✺
21.10.26	Malacateco - Comunicaciones	1:0 ✺
15.10.26	Xelajú - Malacateco	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Malacateco - Deportivo Guastatoya	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Cobán Imperial - Malacateco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWLWL
- Aurora FC
Guatemala Liga Nacional
25.10.26	Suchitepéquez - Aurora	2:2 ✺
18.10.26	Aurora - Deportivo San Pedro	3:1 ✺
14.10.26	Comunicaciones - Aurora	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Aurora - Xelajú	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Aurora	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
30.08.26	Aurora - Malacateco	1:0
22.03.26	Malacateco - Aurora	1:1
01.02.26	Aurora - Malacateco	1:0
10.12.25	Aurora - Malacateco	2:1
06.12.25	Malacateco - Aurora	1:0
08.11.25	Malacateco - Aurora	1:0
07.09.25	Aurora - Malacateco	1:0

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