Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Danilo Martelli (Mantova)

Referee: Bonacina K. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Mantova		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.4	Watch
	2.82	3.2	2.45
	3.23	3.2	2.46
	1.00	1.00	1.02	Watch
	2.85	3.25	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)	2.77 ↓ (3.23)	2.17 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mantova
32.3%

Draw
29.7%

Frosinone
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

29.5%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

30.7%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mantova's form might have worsened.

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Frosinone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mantova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Frosinone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Mantova - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Frosinone will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Frosinone: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mantova (2.13) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Frosinone (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Frosinone (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Frosinone (3.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Mantova (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Frosinone (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Festa M. (G) 17. Radaelli N. 3. Mantovani V. 29. Cella S. 8. Artioli F. 21. Trimboli S. (C) 9. Mancuso L. 20. Fedel G. 11. Fiori A. 30. Bragantini D. 27. Castellini A.	22. Palmisani L. (G) 20. Oyono A. 3. Calvani G. 30. Monterisi I. (C) 79. Bracaglia G. 14. Calo G. 8. Koutsoupias I. 7. Ghedjemis F. 18. Grosso F. 32. Masciangelo E. 28. Zilli M.
Substitutes
22. Andrenacci L. (G) 6. Bani C. 99. Bonfanti N. 28. Caprini M. 96. Maggioni T. 37. Majer Z. 23. Marras T. 7. Mensah D. 4. Mullen S. 36. Paoletti F. 53. Pittino T. 10. Wieser D.	16. Cichella M. 2. Cittadini G. 77. Dixon D. 6. Gelli J. 92. Kone B. L. 12. Lolic E. (G) 24. Ndow A. 21. Oyono J. 75. Pisseri M. (G) 9. Raimondo A. 27. Raychev A. 90. Vergani E.
Coaches
Possanzini D.	Alvini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
8', 0 - 1, Koutsoupias I. ⚽,
16', 0 - 2, Ghedjemis F. ⚽,
20', Bracaglia G. 🟨,
21', Mancuso L. (Pen),
22', 0 - 3, Grosso F. ⚽, Koutsoupias I. (A),
43', 0 - 4, Calo G. ⚽, Ghedjemis F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bracaglia G. ↓, Oyono J. ↑,
48', Zilli M. 🟨,
54', 1 - 4, Fiori A. ⚽,
57', Zilli M. ↓, Raimondo A. ↑,
57', Grosso F. ↓, Cichella M. ↑,
57', Oyono A. 🟨,
62', Fiori A. 🟨,
62', Fedel G. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
62', Mancuso L. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
62', Trimboli S. ↓, Bonfanti N. ↑,
70', Radaelli N. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
72', Ghedjemis F. ↓, Kone B. L. ↑,
72', Koutsoupias I. ↓, Vergani E. ↑,
76', Fiori A. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
86', 1 - 5, Vergani E. ⚽, Kone B. L. (A),
87', Paoletti F. 🟨,
90+2', Monterisi I. 🟨,
90+2', Bonfanti N. (Pen),

Preview

Mantova is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Frosinone has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mantova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Mantova: Ruocco F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Frosinone: Barcella K. (Inactive) Biraschi D. (Inactive) Corrado N. (Inactive) Gori L. (Inactive) Hegelund V. (Inactive) Selvini A. (Knee Injury) Sherri A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Frosinone: Cichella M. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Frosinone - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 31.38%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Mantova - Modena	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Virtus Entella - Mantova	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Mantova - Pescara	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Monza - Mantova	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.25	Venezia - Mantova	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL
- Frosinone Calcio
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Cagliari - Frosinone	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
19.09.25	Frosinone - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Padova - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Palermo - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Frosinone - Avellino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
01.03.25	Frosinone - Mantova	2:1
21.12.24	Mantova - Frosinone	3:1

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