Match Info

SPAIN: Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 5 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Marbella (Marbella)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Marbella		Burgos

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.1
	3.6	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.74	3.16	2.13
	3.69	3.24	2.06	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2
	3.77	3.13	2.16	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (3.27)	3.15 ↑ (2.99)	2.09 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marbella
25.5%

Draw
29.8%

Burgos
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

30.9%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

24.4%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marbella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Burgos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marbella, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Burgos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Marbella - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Burgos will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burgos: 68.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lejarraga A. (G) 3. Fornes G. 4. Carrasco J. 6. Duarte J. 7. Callejon J. 8. Alamo J. 9. Du Yuezheng 10. Punal A. 11. Soto A. 14. Olguin M. 17. Alayeto I.	1. Badiashile L. (G) 4. Arroyo A. 10. Sanchez B. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 17. Lopez J. 19. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 20. Pipa 21. Cordoba I. 27. Lopez D. 28. Cantero M. 33. Exposito M.
Substitutes
5. Acosta L. 2. Alvarez J. 12. Assi J. 15. Diori Y. 24. Edwards R. 16. Hanza D. 22. Lancha Y. 13. Martin D. (G) 23. Pena M. 25. Solsky D. (G)	18. Aitor Cordoba 11. Alex 13. Cantero A. (G) 38. Forns I. 37. Monedero M. (G) 23. Morante I. 9. Nino F. 39. Nsukula G. 7. Ojeda D. 32. Pascual H. 22. Rodriguez T.
Coaches
Beltran F.	Ramis L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Espiau Hernandez E. D. 🟨,
32', Callejon J. 🟨,
41', Alayeto I. 🟨,
44', Carrasco J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ↓, Aitor Cordoba ↑,
46', Cordoba I. ↓, Morante I. ↑,
46', Lopez D. ↓, Forns I. ↑,
46', Aitor Cordoba 🟨,
54', Punal A. 🟨,
61', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Nino F. ↑,
67', Duarte J. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
67', Alayeto I. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
67', Du Yuezheng ↓, Hanza D. ↑,
73', Lopez J. ↓, Alex ↑,
80', Fornes G. ↓, Diori Y. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. ⚽, Alamo J. (A),
90+5', Callejon J. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,

Preview

Marbella has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Burgos is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Burgos will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Marbella - the odds 3.27 are the expected chance of winning is 28.32%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.12.24	Atlético Madrid B - Marbella	3:2 ✺
24.11.24	Marbella - Yeclano Deportivo	0:3 ✺
20.11.24	Hércules - Marbella	2:1 ✺
16.11.24	Ibiza - Marbella	2:0 ✺
10.11.24	Marbella - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
01.12.24	Levante - Burgos	3:1 ✺
23.11.24	Burgos - Eibar	1:0 ✺
16.11.24	Racing Santander - Burgos	2:0 ✺
10.11.24	Burgos - Sporting de Gijón	0:2 ✺
03.11.24	Real Oviedo - Burgos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLL

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