Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Marco 09		Trofense

	1	X	2
	3.75	3	1.95
	3.4	3	2.38
	2.96	2.92	2.53	Watch
	3.99	2.94	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.98)	2.97 ↑ (2.9)	2.21 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
26.4%

Draw
31.4%

Trofense
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

32.3%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

32.3%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marco 09's form might have worsened.

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trofense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marco 09, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trofense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Marco 09 - Trofense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Carvalho D. (G) 20. Andrezinho 79. Erivaldo 57. Kibe 18. Martins D. 53. Matos T. 5. Nandinho 3. Pedro M. (C) 19. Ribeiro P. 88. Silva D. 95. Sousa V.	13. Silva N. (C) 5. Cunha G. 18. Diagne O. 19. Diarra M. 22. Duarte E. 7. Ivandro 26. Lobo G. 89. Nuninho 8. Reko Silva 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 44. Saldanha F.
Substitutes
10. Duarte D. 14. Fati V. 30. Fuba 9. Marllon 11. Mauro Ribeiro 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 59. Sousa T. 26. Ze Couto (G)	15. Borges F. 9. Hachadi K. 29. Joel 2. Oliveira J. 11. Paciencia V. 21. Pereira M. 96. Rendeiro R. (G) 79. Rocha T. 77. Roka

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Andrezinho ⚽, Silva D. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Lobo G. ⚽, Reko Silva (A),
45+1', Pedro M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Nuninho 🟨,
57', Duarte E. 🟨,
59', Nuninho ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
59', Duarte E. ↓, Roka ↑,
59', Lobo G. ↓, Joel ↑,
65', Saldanha F. 🟨,
71', Sousa V. ↓, Mauro Ribeiro ↑,
71', Andrezinho ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
73', Reko Silva 🟨,
75', Ivandro ↓, Rocha T. ↑,
80', Pereira M. 🟨,
83', Diagne O. ↓, Borges F. ↑,
83', Kibe ↓, Marllon ↑,
83', Ribeiro P. ↓, Sousa T. ↑,
84', Marllon 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Marco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Trofense has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Marco 09 - Farense	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Paredes - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Marco 09 - Braga B	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	São João de Ver - Marco 09	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.09.25	Marco 09 - Elvas	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTTW
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.25	Trofense - Varzim	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Trofense - Sanjoanense	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Trofense - Vianense	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Trofense - Fafe	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLWLW

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