Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)


	Maricá		Aparecidense

	1	X	2
	3	2.87	2.25
	3.1	2.85	2.22
	3.17	2.81	2.34
	5.50	3.83	1.57	Watch
	3.2	2.82	2.32
	2.39	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.36)	3.03 ↑ (3)	2.24 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maricá
27.5%

Draw
30.8%

Aparecidense
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

30.3%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

31.1%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maricá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maricá's form might have worsened.

Aparecidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aparecidense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maricá than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maricá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aparecidense than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aparecidense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Maricá - Aparecidense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aparecidense (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aparecidense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Renan Gorne ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 0 - 2, Joao Marcos (Pen),
58', 1 - 2, Pablo Thomaz ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent performances by Maricá have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aparecidense is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Maricá may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maricá FC
Brazilian Copa Rio
30.07.25	Petrópolis - Maricá	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.07.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Maricá	3:0 ✺
19.07.25	Maricá - Portuguesa	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Nova Iguaçu - Maricá	1:3 ✺
05.07.25	Maricá - Boavista	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWW
- AA Aparecidense
Brazilian Serie D
26.07.25	Aparecidense - Capital CF Ltda	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Mixto - Aparecidense	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Aparecidense - Goianésia	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Aparecidense - Porto Velho	7:0 ✺
29.06.25	Goiânia - Aparecidense	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWWW

Maricá - Aparecidense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide