Match Info

Challenge League - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Marsa		Vittoriosa Stars

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.35	2.38	Watch
	2.71	3.48	2.29
	2.7	3.1	2.25
	2.76	3.38	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.45)	3.33 ↓ (3.4)	2.3 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsa
33.7%

Draw
27.1%

Vittoriosa Stars
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26.4%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

25.2%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Vittoriosa Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vittoriosa Stars than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Conti K. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Scerri T. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
83', 1 - 2, Mallia L. ⚽,
90+6', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 13 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsa won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Vittoriosa	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsa FC
Maltese Challenge League
15.02.26	Marsa - Balzan	1:4 ✺
08.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Marsa - Żebbuġ Rangers	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Marsa - Santa Lucia	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Melita - Marsa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLTL
- Vittoriosa Stars
Maltese Challenge League
14.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Melita	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	St. Andrews - Vittoriosa Stars	3:3 ✺
17.01.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Balzan - Vittoriosa Stars	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
08.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	1:1
27.08.22	Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars	1:1
17.01.21	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	2:2
08.03.19	Vittoriosa Stars - Marsa	2:0
18.10.18	Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars	1:2

Marsa - Vittoriosa Stars: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide