Match Info

Date: 18 August 2022, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	RTL 7
Portugal	Sport TV
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	AZ Alkmaar		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.2	7
	1.3	4.5	8.5
	1.4	4.5	8.5
	1.38	4.5	8.2
	1.41	4.56	8.31
	1.42	4.45	6.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.66)	4.45 ↑ (3.75)	7.84 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
67.1%

Draw
21%

Gil Vicente
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

24.9%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

24.2%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AZ Alkmaar's performance.

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gil Vicente might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gil Vicente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.9%	5.7%	10.3%

AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (73 of 87 users predict this - 83.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.19% – 91.63%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg.

AZ is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Gil Vicente is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gil Vicente could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match AZ is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's AZ to win the game is with odds 1.41.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
14.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Dundee United	7:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
04.08.22	Dundee United - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
28.07.22	Tuzla City - AZ Alkmaar	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWLW
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
15.08.22	Arouca - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.08.22	Gil Vicente - Riga	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.08.22	Gil Vicente - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.22	Riga - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.22	Gil Vicente - Tondela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWTT

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