Match Info

Date: 25 August 2022, Thursday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Jovic F. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Gil Vicente		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.66	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.65
	4.8	3.85	1.71
	4.75	3.9	1.66
	3.58	3.69	2.02
				Watch
	4.9	3.74	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↑ (3.51)	3.83 ↑ (3.39)	1.72 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
20.4%

Draw
24.7%

AZ Alkmaar
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

27.7%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

28.6%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gil Vicente's form might have worsened.

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gil Vicente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.8%	20%	62.2%

Gil Vicente - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 8 - 17.8%). AZ will win (votes: 28 - 62.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 48% – 76.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-4.

Recent matches Gil Vicente is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

AZ is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

AZ could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Gil Vicente won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
22.08.22	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.08.22	Arouca - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.08.22	Gil Vicente - Riga	4:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.08.22	Gil Vicente - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLLWW
- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Dundee United	7:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
04.08.22	Dundee United - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
18.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente	4:0

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