Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Gil Vicente		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.65	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.75
	2.78	2.92	2.72	Watch
	2.78	3.06	2.88
	2.77	3.02	2.77	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.63
	2.91	3.03	2.8	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.6)	2.99 ↓ (3.36)	2.75 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
34.2%

Draw
31.5%

Famalicão
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

28.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

28.4%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	38.9%	27.8%

Gil Vicente - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Famalicão will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Gil Vicente (1.47) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Famalicão (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Lucao (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 7. Toure T. 29. Carlos Eduardo	25. Carevic L. (G) 2. Garcia 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 28. Pedro Bondo 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 11. Fernandes J. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 23. Hernandez H. 20. Hevertton S. 27. Moreira A. 89. Varela G. 6. Ze Carlos	9. Abubakar U. 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 47. Pastor G. 8. Pena M. 3. Realpe L. 13. Renan Santana 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Elimbi M. 🟨,
42', De Amorim M. 🟥,
44', 1 - 0, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
53', 2 - 0, Buatu J. ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
63', Sa G. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
63', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
63', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
66', Elimbi M. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
66', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
67', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
76', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
78', Van de Looi T. ↓, Mamageishvili O. ↑,
78', Gil Dias ↓, Santos P. ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Varela G. ⚽, Espigares A. (A),
82', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
83', Abubakar U. 🟨,
84', 4 - 0, Varela G. ⚽, Fernandes J. (A),
90', 5 - 0, Garcia S. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Famalicão may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Fernandez M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Caseres F. (Inactive) Mutombo J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Rochinha (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.9:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Gil Vicente - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.35%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
26.01.26	Porto - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1 ✺
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWTTT
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Clara - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
22.12.25	Benfica - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
24.08.25	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:0
17.02.25	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	0:2
14.09.24	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	1:1
29.03.24	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	1:2
04.11.23	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	3:1
12.02.23	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:1
22.08.22	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	0:0

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