Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 31

Date: 7 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Marítimo		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.5
	2.1	3.15	3.5	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.87
	2.1	3.2	3.5
	2.06	3.38	3.68	Watch
	2.17	3.3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.6)	3.25 ↑ (3.12)	3.59 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
44.8%

Draw
28.9%

Rio Ave
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

28.9%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marítimo's performance.

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Ave might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marítimo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Ave could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	20%	33.3%

Marítimo - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marítimo: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 12).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 16 (71.99%), project points - 26, currently - 22, a good chance of relegated (54%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Rio Ave has the most likely position - 12 (22.81%), project points - 44, currently - 38, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 45, small importance 21, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Marítimo will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Marítimo: Trmal M. (Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Joca (Knee Injury) Pantalon R. (Red Card) Ventura B. (Injury)

Last 25 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 10 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 23-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Marítimo won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
29.04.23	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
22.04.23	Famalicão - Marítimo	3:2 ✺
15.04.23	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	3:1 ✺
08.04.23	Arouca - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
02.04.23	Marítimo - Boavista	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLW
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
28.04.23	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:0 ✺
22.04.23	Boavista - Rio Ave	3:2 ✺
16.04.23	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	Portimonense - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
02.04.23	Rio Ave - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.12.22	Rio Ave - Marítimo	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
01.12.22	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:1
Liga Portugal
21.04.21	Marítimo - Rio Ave	1:0
28.12.20	Rio Ave - Marítimo	1:3
Club Friendly
29.08.20	Rio Ave - Marítimo	0:0
Liga Portugal
13.07.20	Marítimo - Rio Ave	0:0
05.01.20	Rio Ave - Marítimo	0:1

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