Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rio Ave		Benfica

	1	X	2
	9	5	1.3	Watch
	8.8	5.4	1.29	Watch
	9.07	5.28	1.34	Watch
	8.5	5	1.3	Watch
	9.45	5.76	1.33	Watch
	9	5.33	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.97 ↑ (7.25)	5.3 ↑ (4.55)	1.31 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
10.5%

Draw
17.8%

Benfica
71.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.9%

20.5%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.4%

19.6%

69.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benfica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	0%	93.3%

Rio Ave - Benfica Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Benfica (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Rio Ave (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Benfica (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Miszta C. (C) 23. Petrasso F. 32. Brabec J. 6. Abbey N. 20. Tome J. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 5. Ntoi A. 3. Athanasiou N. 11. Andre Luiz 9. Clayton 18. Spikic D.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 25. Prestianni G. 10. Sudakov G. 21. Schjelderup A. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
22. Chamorro K. (G) 7. Diogo Bezerra 54. Liavas G. 44. Nikitscher T. 4. Panzo J. 19. Papakanellos A. 80. Pohlmann O. 77. Richards O. 14. Zoabi K.	5. Barrenechea E. 27. Bruma 50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 15. Lopes Cabral S. 16. Manu 62. Neto J. 84. Rego J. 4. Silva A.
Coaches
Sylaidopoulos S.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Barreiro L. ⚽, Sudakov G. (A),
25', 0 - 2, Ntoi A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Schjelderup A. 🟨,
62', Schjelderup A. ↓, Lopes Cabral S. ↑,
66', Ntoi A. 🟨,
72', Ntoi A. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
73', Andre Luiz ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
73', Athanasiou N. ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
78', Prestianni G. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
80', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
80', Spikic D. ↓, Diogo Bezerra ↑,
90', Sudakov G. ↓, Manu ↑,
90+1', Dahl S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Richards O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle) Soares S. (Injury) Veloso J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Rio Ave: Rafael Lobato (Inactive)

There are questionable in Benfica: Rios R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 20:51. (average 1:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.1:1.9).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Benfica: 23.81% Rio Ave: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Last Results with these Odds

Benfica - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.64%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTLW
- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Porto - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
07.01.26	Benfica - Braga	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Benfica - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Braga - Benfica	2:2 ✺
22.12.25	Benfica - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1
16.03.25	Rio Ave - Benfica	2:3
27.10.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	5:0
17.05.24	Rio Ave - Benfica	1:1
14.01.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	4:1
02.04.23	Rio Ave - Benfica	0:1
08.10.22	Benfica - Rio Ave	4:2

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