Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Rio Ave		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	2.85	Watch
	2.48	3.05	2.98	Watch
	2.43	3.07	3.16	Watch
	2.4	3	3
	2.53	3.31	3	Watch
	2.42	3	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.34)	3.11 ↓ (3.29)	3.02 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
38.5%

Draw
30.3%

Casa Pia
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.8%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

28.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	58.3%	16.7%

Rio Ave - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 6 - 25%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.6% – 78%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Casa Pia (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Miszta C. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 32. Brabec J. 6. Abbey N. 17. Vrousai M. (C) 5. Ntoi A. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 20. Tome J. 11. Andre Luiz 9. Clayton 18. Spikic D.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 8. Brito R. 74. Nhaga R. 5. Conte A. 20. Oukili Y. 90. Cassiano 29. Livolant J.
Substitutes
3. Athanasiou N. 22. Chamorro K. (G) 21. Graca J. 54. Liavas G. 63. Lomboto J. 44. Nikitscher T. 19. Papakanellos A. 80. Pohlmann O. 14. Zoabi K.	33. Batista R. (G) 4. Goulart J. 99. Mendes C. 14. Miguel Sousa 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 7. Nsona K. 42. Perez S. 19. Prieto K.
Coaches
Sylaidopoulos S.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
62', Conte A. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
62', Brito R. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Aguilera Zamora B. ⚽,
69', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
70', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
71', Larrazabal G. ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
74', Spikic D. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Mendes C. ⚽, Miguel Sousa (A),
86', 3 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
88', Andre Luiz ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
88', Petrasso F. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
90', Geraldes A. 🟨,
90+2', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Graca J. ↑,
90+2', Clayton ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Rio Ave may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Richards O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kaique Rocha (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury) Svensson M. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Casa Pia: 0.16% Rio Ave: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3:16	-13	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTLWT
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
29.03.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	2:1
Taça de Portugal
12.01.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:3
Liga Portugal
02.11.24	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	2:2
11.02.24	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	1:0
02.09.23	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:1
16.04.23	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	1:1
30.10.22	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:0

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