Match Info

Liga Primera - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN App
Ecuador	DAZN App
Mexico	DAZN App
Nicaragua	Campeones, NicaSports
Paraguay	DAZN App
Peru	DAZN App
Uruguay	DAZN App
Venezuela	DAZN App
World	FIFA+


	Matagalpa		Real Madriz

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	5.5
	1.41	4.25	5.9	Watch
	1.43	4.49	6.22
	1.44	4.61	6.35	Watch
	1.4	4	6.5
	1.49	4.52	5.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.37)	4.37 ↓ (4.64)	6.04 ↓ (7.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Matagalpa
63.9%

Draw
20.9%

Real Madriz
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

19.8%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.2%

18.7%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matagalpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Real Madriz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matagalpa than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matagalpa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madriz than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Matagalpa - Real Madriz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
16', 0 - 2, ⚽,
27', 🟥,
44', 0 - 3, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 0 - 4, ⚽,
56', 1 - 4, ⚽,
62', 2 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Clausura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Matagalpa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Madriz is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Matagalpa is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Matagalpa will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Matagalpa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Matagalpa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Matagalpa	9	3	0	6	4:16	-12	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matagalpa FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
01.03.26	Rancho Santana - Matagalpa	2:8 ✺
25.02.26	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Matagalpa - Real Estelí	1:1 ✺
18.02.26	Walter Ferretti - Matagalpa	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Managua - Matagalpa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WWTWT
- Real Madriz
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
01.03.26	Real Madriz - Walter Ferretti	1:0 ✺
26.02.26	Real Estelí - Real Madriz	3:0 ✺
23.02.26	Rancho Santana - Real Madriz	3:3 ✺
19.02.26	Real Madriz - Diriangén	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Real Madriz - Municipal Jalapa	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Liga Primera
31.01.26	Real Madriz - Matagalpa	1:1
05.10.25	Real Madriz - Matagalpa	1:2
26.07.25	Matagalpa - Real Madriz	1:2

Upcoming Matches