Match Info

J3 League - Round 27

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Azul Claro Numazu

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	3.7
	1.85	3.2	3.8
	1.86	3.39	4.08
	1.87	3.23	4.31	Watch
	1.84	3.22	4.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.14)	3.26 ↑ (3.1)	3.99 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
49.2%

Draw
28%

Azul Claro Numazu
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

30%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.7%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matsumoto Yamaga's performance.

Azul Claro Numazu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matsumoto Yamaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Azul Claro Numazu than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Azul Claro Numazu Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matsumoto Yamaga will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 16. Miyabe T. 40. Higuchi D. 41. Murakoshi K. 19. Sugita H. 15. Yamamoto K. 4. Takahashi S. 46. Yasunaga R. 23. Taki Y. 17. Yamamoto R. 43. Hayashi M.	30. Gueguim G. (G) 2. Miyawaki S. 16. Mihara S. 8. Suzuki K. 5. Shinozaki T. 11. Mori Y. 34. Miyazaki K. 14. Tokunaga K. 35. Mukai H. 24. Yanagimachi K. 23. Shirawachi K.
Substitutes
28. Fujieda K. 35. Kanda S. (G) 25. Kawakami K. 30. Kokubu R. 27. Ninomiya J. 24. Ogawa D. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 42. Tanaka S.	99. Akatsuka M. 28. Inoue K. 3. Lucas Sena 21. Maeda H. (G) 77. Martinez E. 19. Saito M. 10. Sato N. 18. Sugai T. 29. Weverton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Murakoshi K. ⚽, Higuchi D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Hayashi M. ⚽,
59', Mukai H. ↓, Akatsuka M. ↑,
59', Mihara S. ↓, Lucas Sena ↑,
68', Taki Y. 🟨,
71', Yamamoto K. ↓, Kawakami K. ↑,
71', Taki Y. ↓, Saso K. ↑,
74', Suzuki K. 🟨,
74', Yanagimachi K. ↓, Saito M. ↑,
74', Tokunaga K. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
83', Shirawachi K. ↓, Weverton ↑,
84', Murakoshi K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
84', Yamamoto R. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
85', Lucas Sena 🟨,
90+1', Mori Y. 🟨,
90+2', Hayashi M. ↓, Kokubu R. ↑,
90+3', Weverton 🟨,
90+5', Martinez E. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2.

Matsumoto Yamaga has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Azul Claro Numazu has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Matsumoto Yamaga is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
06.09.25	Tochigi City - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Vanraure Hachinohe	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Gainare Tottori - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gifu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTTTW
- Azul Claro Numazu
Japan J3 League
06.09.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Azul Claro Numazu	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Tochigi City	4:5 ✺
23.08.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Azul Claro Numazu	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Tochigi - Azul Claro Numazu	3:2 ✺
26.07.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
23.02.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1
24.11.24	Azul Claro Numazu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:1
16.06.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Azul Claro Numazu	4:0
22.10.23	Azul Claro Numazu - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:1
16.04.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Azul Claro Numazu	3:4
02.10.22	Azul Claro Numazu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
30.04.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Azul Claro Numazu	1:0

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