Match Info

J3 League - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Gainare Tottori

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.80	4.60
	1.63	3.70	4.25	Watch
	1.64	4.00	4.95
	1.57	4.05	5.4	Watch
	1.62	3.70	4.90
	1.69	3.77	4.71	Watch
	1.59	3.80	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.74)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	4.8 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
56.9%

Draw
24%

Gainare Tottori
19.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.5%

25.6%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24.7%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matsumoto Yamaga's performance.

Gainare Tottori has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainare Tottori than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Matsumoto Yamaga (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 5. Shirai T. 4. Minoda K. 43. Kaneko K. 22. Saso K. 14. Rikiyasu S. 40. Higuchi D. 11. Kaneko S. 13. Murakami H. 18. Sato R. 19. Tanaka S.	47. Momoi R. (G) 55. Oshima H. 4. Nikaido S. 20. Lorenz M. 7. Arai R. 16. Tasei Y. 77. Hashimoto S. 8. Tojo A. 27. Hombo K. 9. Shinoda D. 10. Miki N.
Substitutes
38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 48. Kawakami K. 30. Kitazume K. 23. Koma R. (G) 36. Matsumura G. 16. Miyabe T. 8. Sawazaki R. 17. Taguchi Y.	88. Burns A. (G) 2. Fujita I. 14. Kawamura T. 15. Kiuchi T. 32. Moon M. 3. Nozawa Van Eerden S. T. 21. Yajima S. 19. Yamamoto S. 22. Yoshida I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Miki N. ⚽, Oshima H. (A),
60', Sato R. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
60', Kaneko S. ↓, Sawazaki R. ↑,
66', Tojo A. ↓, Fujita I. ↑,
66', Miki N. ↓, Yamamoto S. ↑,
73', Tanaka S. ↓, Taguchi Y. ↑,
73', Saso K. ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
74', Arai R. 🟨,
76', Murakami H. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
78', Arai R. ↓, Moon M. ↑,
78', Shinoda D. ↓, Yoshida I. ↑,
82', Lorenz M. 🟨,
90+1', Hombo K. ↓, Kiuchi T. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 15th and 13th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2.

Matsumoto Yamaga is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Gainare Tottori has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Gainare Tottori may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Matsumoto Yamaga is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Matsumoto Yamaga has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:8 (averaging 1.4:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Matsumoto Yamaga against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 8:6 goals (averaging 1.6:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	13:23	-10	15
15	Yamaga	13	3	5	5	12:15	-3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Gainare Tottori - the odds 3.9 are the expected chance of winning is 22.96%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	1:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Shonan Bellmare	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWTLW
- Gainare Tottori
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Gainare Tottori - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Gainare Tottori	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Gainare Tottori - Nara Club	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Gainare Tottori	2:4 ✺
05.09.26	Gainare Tottori - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
23.08.25	Gainare Tottori - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
18.05.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	1:0
20.10.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	3:4
08.06.24	Gainare Tottori - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:4
05.08.23	Gainare Tottori - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:1
02.04.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	0:0
18.09.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	2:1

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