The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tochigi 37.4%
Draw 28.8%
Matsumoto Yamaga 33.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43.5%
28.9%
27.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44%
29.2%
27.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tochigi's form might have worsened.
Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matsumoto Yamaga's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tochigi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matsumoto Yamaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
41. Tashiro R. (G) 4. Sato S. 5. Yanagi Y. 14. Suzuki S. 6. Abe K. 7. Osako R. 23. Sese H. 13. Osone K. 81. Nakano K. 17. Sugimori K. 9. Kondo Y.
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 5. Shirai T. 4. Minoda K. 6. Noda H. 22. Saso K. 14. Rikiyasu S. 40. Higuchi D. 11. Kaneko S. 13. Murakami H. 18. Sato R. 19. Tanaka S.
Substitutes
3. Higashi R. 10. Igarashi T. 1. Kawata S. (G) 37. Kimura Y. 18. Matsushita Y. 16. Myogan T. 77. Nakamura J. 20. Suzuki W. I. 25. Yamaguchi T.
39. Inoue A. 43. Kaneko K. 30. Kitazume K. 23. Koma R. (G) 36. Matsumura G. 16. Miyabe T. 8. Sawazaki R. 17. Taguchi Y. 15. Takano R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Suzuki S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Abe K. ↓, Suzuki W. I. ↑,
58', Kondo Y. ↓, Igarashi T. ↑,
66', Suzuki W. I. 🟨,
74', 1 - 1, Igarashi T. ⚽, Osone K. (A),
78', Osone K. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
78', Saso K. ↓, Takano R. ↑,
78', Tanaka S. ↓, Taguchi Y. ↑,
81', Noda H. 🟥,
83', Sato R. ↓, Miyabe T. ↑,
86', Sato S. ↓, Nakamura J. ↑,
86', Sugimori K. ↓, Myogan T. ↑,
88', Rikiyasu S. ↓, Kaneko K. ↑,
88', Kaneko S. ↓, Matsumura G. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Higuchi D. ⚽, Takano R. (A),
Preview
A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 13th and 17th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tochigi won 3.
Recent results have been tough for Tochigi (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Matsumoto Yamaga has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Tochigi may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tochigi holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Tochigi has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:11 (averaging 1.2:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tochigi against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 8:5 goals (averaging 1.6:1 per game).
Japan
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Tashiro R. (G) 
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