The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Matsumoto Yamaga 35.3%
Draw 29.8%
Júbilo Iwata 34.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.6%
28.9%
35.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.6%
28.9%
35.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
Matsumoto Yamaga - Júbilo Iwata Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 25. Shirai T. 43. Kaneko K. 27. Ninomiya J. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 41. Murakoshi K. 36. Matsumura G. 24. Ogawa D. 19. Tanaka S. 39. Inoue A.
21. Miura R. (G) 38. Kawaguchi N. 20. Kato D. 3. Morioka R. 36. Yoshimura R. 8. Tameda H. 33. Kawai T. 77. Fujiwara K. 39. Sumi K. 27. Sato R. 48. Aida Y.
Substitutes
38. Fujieda K. 8. Fukazawa Y. 50. Hayakawa K. 40. Higuchi D. 1. Kambayashi G. (G) 9. Kato T. 44. Lee T. 2. Oda I. 30. Sawazaki R.
13. Abe K. (G) 16. Gustavo Silva 18. Inoue S. 42. Ishizuka R. 34. Kai Y. 2. Kawasaki I. 66. Masuda S. 50. Uemura H. 30. Yamazaki K.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Ogawa D. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Ninomiya J. ⚽, Murakoshi K. (A),
45+1', Aida Y. ↓, Uemura H. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Kato D. 🟨,
62', Kawai T. ↓, Gustavo Silva ↑,
62', Kato D. ↓, Masuda S. ↑,
75', Murakoshi K. ↓, Sawazaki R. ↑,
77', Tameda H. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
77', Fujiwara K. ↓, Inoue S. ↑,
81', Saso K. ↓, Higuchi D. ↑,
82', Tanaka S. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
88', Ogawa D. ↓, Oda I. ↑,
88', Ohashi H. ↓, Fukazawa Y. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 1, Sumi K. (Penalty Awarded),
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, Sawazaki R. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Gustavo Silva (Penalty Awarded),
2, Oda I. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Inoue S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Kaneko K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Uemura H. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Fujieda K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Kawasaki I. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Fukazawa Y. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Sato R. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Higuchi D. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Sumi K. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Shirai T. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Yoshimura R. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1.
Matsumoto Yamaga has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Iwata is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Iwata may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:24. (average 0.9:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.6:1.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.56%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.
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Tomizawa M. (G) 
Lee T. 
Gustavo Silva 
