Match Info

J2/J3 League - Placement Play Offs - Final

Date: 6 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Nara Club

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.50	4.00
	1.68	3.85	4.40	Watch
	1.80	3.70	4.31
	1.69	3.87	4.56	Watch
	1.60	3.60	4.50
	1.74	3.75	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.59)	3.71 ↓ (3.84)	4.37 ↓ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
54.1%

Draw
24.8%

Nara Club
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.6%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

23.2%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Nara Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nara Club than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Matsumoto Yamaga - Nara Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 25. Shirai T. 43. Kaneko K. 16. Miyabe T. 2. Oda I. 8. Fukazawa Y. 40. Higuchi D. 36. Matsumura G. 30. Sawazaki R. 41. Murakoshi K. 9. Kato T.	96. Vito M. (G) 40. Yoshimura Y. 33. Sato H. 16. Okuda Y. 8. Yoshida A. 50. Shibamoto R. 10. Morita R. 7. Tamura R. 20. Kunitake Y. 54. Kawasaki S. 17. Tamura S.
Substitutes
39. Inoue A. 23. Koma R. (G) 7. Matsuoka R. 27. Ninomiya J. 24. Ogawa D. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 4. Takahashi S. 19. Tanaka S.	18. Goto T. 37. Hamana G. 22. Ikoma K. 36. Ishii T. 14. Mochizuki S. 15. Okada S. (G) 11. Sato R. 2. Takahata K. 21. Tomizu R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Tamura S. ⚽, Tamura R. (A),
31', 0 - 2, Kawasaki S. ⚽, Morita R. (A),
44', Shirai T. 🟨,
45+4', Kato T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matsumura G. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
46', Oda I. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
46', Shibamoto R. 🟨,
57', Murakoshi K. 🟨,
67', Kato T. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
67', Yoshimura Y. ↓, Ikoma K. ↑,
67', Shibamoto R. ↓, Tomizu R. ↑,
67', Tamura R. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
74', Sato R. 🟨,
77', Sato H. ↓, Ishii T. ↑,
79', Sawazaki R. ↓, Ohashi H. ↑,
79', Shirai T. ↓, Takahashi S. ↑,
84', Tamura S. ↓, Mochizuki S. ↑,
90+3', Vito M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Matsumoto Yamaga is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J2 J3 League
31.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ET ✺
24.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	3:4 penalties ✺
17.05.26	Iwaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 penalties ✺
10.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fujieda MYFC	0:1 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Gifu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WLWLW
- Nara Club
Japan J2 J3 League
30.05.26	Nara Club - Oita Trinita	4:3 ET ✺
23.05.26	Nara Club - Kataller Toyama	5:1 ✺
16.05.26	Albirex Niigata - Nara Club	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Tokushima Vortis - Nara Club	1:2 ✺
06.05.26	Nara Club - Osaka	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
12.07.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Nara Club	3:0
01.03.25	Nara Club - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:1
29.09.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Nara Club	1:1
13.04.24	Nara Club - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:2
02.12.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Nara Club	0:1
04.03.23	Nara Club - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2

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