Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 17

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Nara Club

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.72	3.35	4.25	Watch
	1.77	3.42	4.35
	1.8	3.45	4.46	Watch
	1.67	3.4	4.33
	1.73	3.42	4.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.79)	3.41 ↓ (3.5)	4.35 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
52.4%

Draw
26.7%

Nara Club
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

26.7%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

26.1%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Nara Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nara Club than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Albirex Niigata - Nara Club Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Albirex Niigata (votes: 1 - 50%). Nara Club (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nara Club (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Nara Club (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Albirex Niigata (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Albirex Niigata will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Albirex Niigata (votes: 2 - 40%). Nara Club (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Yoshimitsu D. (G) 25. Fujiwara S. 34. Fujiwara Y. 77. Funaki K. 26. Sato M. 30. Okumura J. 8. Shirai E. 22. Arai T. 17. Shimabuku K. 18. Wakatsuki Y. 46. Kasai K.	96. Vito M. (G) 40. Yoshimura Y. 33. Sato H. 16. Okuda Y. 8. Yoshida A. 50. Shibamoto R. 10. Morita R. 7. Tamura R. 20. Kunitake Y. 54. Kawasaki S. 17. Tamura S.
Substitutes
5. Fitzgerald M. 15. Hayakawa F. 40. Ishiyama A. 3. Kato T. 38. Mori K. 24. Mori R. 48. Otake Y. 28. Shimamura T. 71. Uchiyama S. (G)	18. Goto T. 37. Hamana G. 36. Ishii T. 1. Miyazawa T. (G) 14. Mochizuki S. 47. Olasunkanmi D. 11. Sato R. 2. Takahata K. 21. Tomizu R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 1 - 0, Shimabuku K. ⚽,
51', 1 - 1, Tamura S. ⚽,
52', Yoshida A. 🟨,
70', Okumura J. ↓, Kato T. ↑,
79', Sato M. ↓, Hayakawa F. ↑,
79', Kasai K. ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
80', Tamura R. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
80', Shibamoto R. ↓, Tomizu R. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Wakatsuki Y. ⚽,
88', Wakatsuki Y. ↓, Ishiyama A. ↑,
90+2', Yoshimura Y. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Niigata is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Niigata won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J2 J3 League
10.05.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Albirex Niigata	2:1 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Albirex Niigata - Tokushima Vortis	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Albirex Niigata - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:1 ✺
29.04.26	Kataller Toyama - Albirex Niigata	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Albirex Niigata - Osaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWLW
- Nara Club
Japan J2 J3 League
10.05.26	Tokushima Vortis - Nara Club	1:2 ✺
06.05.26	Nara Club - Osaka	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Imabari - Nara Club	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Nara Club - Kochi United	1:0 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Nara Club	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
14.03.26	Nara Club - Albirex Niigata	0:1 penalties

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