Match Info

J2/J3 League - Placement matches - Round 1

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)


	Montedio Yamagata		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.18	3.25	2.92	Watch
	2.24	3.42	2.98
	2.25	3.54	2.93	Watch
	2.3	3.38	2.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.19)	3.4 ↓ (3.6)	2.95 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
41.3%

Draw
27.3%

Matsumoto Yamaga
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

25.8%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

25%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Montedio Yamagata - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 19. Okamoto K. 4. Nishimura K. 49. Sakamoto K. 15. Kawai A. 17. Terayama T. 20. Yoshio Kaina 21. Tanaka W. 18. Yokoyama R. 9. Takahashi J. 14. Yanagimachi K.	21. Tomizawa M. (G) 25. Shirai T. 43. Kaneko K. 16. Miyabe T. 8. Fukazawa Y. 2. Oda I. 36. Matsumura G. 30. Sawazaki R. 40. Higuchi D. 41. Murakoshi K. 9. Kato T.
Substitutes
27. Enomoto K. 25. Kokubu S. 7. Nakamura R. 13. Nodake H. 45. Shibuya T. (G) 22. Shirowa H. 23. Tanaka S. 88. Thalisson 6. Yamada T.	38. Fujieda K. 50. Hayakawa K. 39. Inoue A. 23. Koma R. (G) 27. Ninomiya J. 24. Ogawa D. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 19. Tanaka S.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Ishizaki N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Sawazaki R. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
61', Kato T. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
64', Terayama T. 🟨,
67', 1 - 0, Takahashi J. ⚽, Kawai A. (A),
69', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Nakamura R. ↑,
69', Yokoyama R. ↓, Kokubu S. ↑,
71', Oda I. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
71', Matsumura G. ↓, Ohashi H. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Inoue A. ⚽, Fukazawa Y. (A),
83', Tanaka W. ↓, Enomoto K. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
91', Higuchi D. ↓, Saso K. ↑,
91', Terayama T. ↓, Nodake H. ↑,
92', 1 - 2, Murakoshi K. ⚽, Shirai T. (A),
99', Nishimura K. ↓, Shirowa H. ↑,
106', Kawai A. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
110', Tanaka S. 🟨,
120', Fujieda K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Montedio Yamagata may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Montedio Yamagata has had a series of home games.

Montedio Yamagata might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.9:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31.8%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 J3 League
24.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Shonan Bellmare	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Tochigi City - Montedio Yamagata	3:0 ✺
10.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagamihara	2:3 ✺
06.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Montedio Yamagata - Tochigi	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLW
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J2 J3 League
24.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	3:4 penalties ✺
17.05.26	Iwaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 penalties ✺
10.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fujieda MYFC	0:1 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Gifu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:3 ✺
03.05.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ventforet Kofu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
11.07.21	Montedio Yamagata - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
14.03.21	Matsumoto Yamaga - Montedio Yamagata	1:1
04.10.20	Montedio Yamagata - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:3
05.09.20	Matsumoto Yamaga - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
30.09.18	Montedio Yamagata - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:3
22.04.18	Matsumoto Yamaga - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
16.08.17	Matsumoto Yamaga - Montedio Yamagata	3:2

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