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Current Win Probability
Matsumoto Yamaga 33%
Draw 30.1%
Tochigi 36.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.8%
29.9%
34.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.9%
32.5%
31.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
Tochigi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matsumoto Yamaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tochigi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 19. Sugita H. 4. Takahashi S. 16. Miyabe T. 40. Higuchi D. 15. Yamamoto K. 46. Yasunaga R. 17. Yamamoto R. 10. Kikui Y. 41. Murakoshi K. 43. Hayashi M.
1. Kawata S. (G) 3. Omori H. 2. Hiramatsu W. 25. Iwasaki H. 22. Takahashi H. 77. Fujiwara K. 47. Yoshino H. 18. Kawana R. 81. Nakano K. 10. Igarashi T. 32. Ota R.
Substitutes
35. Kanda S. (G) 25. Kawakami K. 20. Maeda R. 36. Matsumura G. 24. Ogawa D. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 23. Taki Y. 42. Tanaka S.
37. Kimura Y. 5. Mori R. 80. Otabor K. 4. Sato S. 40. Takashima S. 7. Tanahashi A. 27. Tanno K. (G) 39. Yagi K. 29. Yano K.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Murakoshi K. ↓, Taki Y. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Nakano K. ⚽,
56', Yamamoto K. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Takahashi S. ⚽,
66', Yamamoto K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
66', Yamamoto R. ↓, Ogawa D. ↑,
68', Ota R. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
76', Nakano K. ↓, Tanahashi A. ↑,
76', Igarashi T. ↓, Otabor K. ↑,
78', Fujiwara K. 🟨,
78', Yasunaga R. 🟨,
82', Omori H. 🟨,
85', Kawana R. 🟨,
89', Yasunaga R. ↓, Kawakami K. ↑,
89', Sugita H. ↓, Matsumura G. ↑,
90+1', Kawana R. ↓, Mori R. ↑,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 7).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 0.
In recent matches, Matsumoto Yamaga has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Tochigi is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Matsumoto Yamaga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 35.82%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.
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Japan
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Ouchi I. (G) 
Otabor K. 
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