Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio El Encanto (Mazatlán)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Mazatlan		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.5	1.39	Watch
	6.9	4.95	1.39	Watch
	7.95	5.11	1.39
	7.36	4.98	1.4
	6.5	4.33	1.36
	8.03	4.58	1.43	Watch
	7.5	5.33	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.39 ↑ (4.41)	4.83 ↑ (3.6)	1.39 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazatlan
12.7%

Draw
19.5%

Chivas Guadalajara
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

25.7%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

25.1%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mazatlan's form might have worsened.

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chivas Guadalajara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mazatlan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chivas Guadalajara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	5.3%	89.5%

Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Guadalajara (1.63) (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chivas Guadalajara will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chivas Guadalajara will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 18 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rodriguez R. (G) 21. Santos S. 26. Leyva A. 5. Almada F. 19. Merolla L. 14. Zaleta M. 10. Moreno Villegas O. F. 23. Sierra J. (C) 11. Barcenas Y. 7. Dudu 15. Rubio B.	1. Rangel R. (G) 23. Aguirre D. 7. Romo L. (C) 2. Castillo J. 37. Ledezma R. 11. Gutierrez B. 6. Govea O. 5. Gonzalez B. 25. Alvarado R. 10. Alvarez E. 34. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
13. Alcaraz Diaz V. A. (G) 202. Ben Rhouma A. 4. Diaz J. 235. Estrada J. 25. Godinez S. 28. Hernandez D. 22. Herrera A. 20. Lainez M. 193. Lopez G. 31. Saavedra Nevarez A. A.	26. Camberos H. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 24. Gomez M. 28. Gonzalez F. 17. Marin R. 31. Padilla Y. 226. Sandoval S. 20. Sepulveda A. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G)
Coaches
Bueno S.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', Merolla L. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Alvarez E. ⚽,
23', Moreno Villegas O. F. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
29', 0 - 2, Gonzalez A. (Penalty Awarded),
40', Romo L. 🟨,
43', Zaleta M. 🟨,
43', Aguirre D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Merolla L. ↓, Godinez S. ↑,
46', Aguirre D. ↓, Campillo Del Campo D. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Barcenas Y. ⚽,
58', Gutierrez B. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
66', Rubio B. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
66', Leyva A. ↓, Saavedra Nevarez A. A. ↑,
76', Gonzalez A. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
77', Santos S. 🟨,
80', Sierra J. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
82', Castillo J. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
82', Ledezma R. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 1.

Mazatlan is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Guadalajara is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Guadalajara is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Guadalajara: Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Castro C. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:24. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mazatlan won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
31.01.26	Atlas - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
16.01.26	Mazatlan - Monterrey	1:5 ✺
13.01.26	Puebla - Mazatlan	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Mazatlan - Juárez	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.25	Tijuana - Mazatlan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT
- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
31.01.26	Atlético San Luis - Chivas Guadalajara	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Juárez - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.01.26	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	2:0
11.04.25	Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1
20.07.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	2:0
16.02.24	Mazatlan - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2
26.09.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	1:3
29.04.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	4:1
Copa por Mexico
16.12.22	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	1:0

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