Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio de Mazatlán (Mazatlán)

Referee: Garcia Mendoza K. I. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, FOX One
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Mazatlan		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.7	1.91	Watch
	3.45	3.7	1.92	Watch
	3.63	3.88	2.02
	2.92	3.84	2.20	Watch
	3.78	3.73	1.97	Watch
	2.95	3.75	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (2.92)	3.77 ↓ (3.84)	2.03 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazatlan
27.9%

Draw
25.2%

Necaxa
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

24.6%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

24.4%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Mazatlan - Necaxa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Necaxa (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Necaxa will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez D. (C) 26. Leyva A. 5. Almada F. 19. Merolla L. 15. Colula B. 16. Esquivel J. 6. Meraz R. 20. Lainez M. 11. Barcenas Y. 90. Fabio Gomes 23. Sierra J.	22. Unsain E. (C) 7. Rosero K. 26. Lara E. 3. Oliveros A. 16. Calderon C. 24. Rossano F. 5. Jacob T. 29. Rodriguez I. 8. Palavecino A. 9. Badaloni T. 27. Cambindo D.
Substitutes
13. Alcaraz Diaz V. A. (G) 202. Ben Rhouma A. 32. Castro C. 4. Diaz J. 9. Duarte A. 8. Fierro S. 2. Garcia J. 28. Hernandez D. 18. Torres A. 14. Zaleta M.	13. Andrade A. 17. Cortez R. 14. De Buen D. 12. Jimenez L. (G) 2. Martinez E. 30. Monreal R. 4. Pena A. 15. Perez P. 21. Rojas J. 11. Sanchez R.
Coaches
Siboldi R.	Gago F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Fabio Gomes 🟨,
35', Merolla L. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
35', Barcenas Y. ↓, Zaleta M. ↑,
36', Colula B. 🟨,
38', Meraz R. 🟨,
44', Lara E. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 0, Fabio Gomes (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Lainez M. 🟨,
59', Leyva A. 🟥,
67', Rossano F. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
67', Lara E. ↓, Monreal R. ↑,
68', Calderon C. 🟨,
71', Esquivel J. 🟨,
71', Esquivel J. ↓, Castro C. ↑,
79', Oliveros A. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
86', Fabio Gomes ↓, Duarte A. ↑,
86', Sierra J. ↓, Fierro S. ↑,
90+8', 1 - 1, Monreal R. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Necaxa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Mazatlan: Dudu (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Herrera A. (Injury) Moreno Villegas O. F. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mazatlan won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
02.11.25	Querétaro - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Mazatlan - Club América	2:2 ✺
21.10.25	Mazatlan - Santos Laguna	2:2 ✺
18.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Mazatlan - Atlético San Luis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTTLW
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
31.10.25	Necaxa - Santos Laguna	4:1 ✺
26.10.25	Atlético San Luis - Necaxa	3:4 ✺
21.10.25	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	5:3 ✺
03.10.25	Necaxa - Pachuca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
21.02.25	Necaxa - Mazatlan	3:1
18.09.24	Mazatlan - Necaxa	0:0
01.03.24	Mazatlan - Necaxa	2:1
05.11.23	Necaxa - Mazatlan	4:0
17.03.23	Mazatlan - Necaxa	0:1
23.09.22	Necaxa - Mazatlan	2:2
01.03.22	Mazatlan - Necaxa	0:0

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