Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Referee: Pacheco Larios G. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Claro Sports, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Necaxa		Pachuca

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.55
	2.42	3.55	2.62
	2.5	3.75	2.73
	2.56	3.62	2.51	Watch
				Watch
	2.46	3.56	2.55	Watch
	2.44	3.6	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.75)	3.61 (3.61)	2.6 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
38.1%

Draw
25.9%

Pachuca
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

26.2%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

27%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Necaxa - Pachuca Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Pachuca will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Unsain E. (C) 5. Jacob T. 26. Lara E. 16. Calderon C. 7. Rosero K. 29. Rodriguez I. 8. Palavecino A. 24. Rossano F. 21. Rojas J. 9. Badaloni T. 27. Cambindo D.	25. Moreno C. (C) 12. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 3. Aceves A. 26. Bautista A. 5. Pedraza P. 29. Kenedy 23. Quinones L. 11. Idrissi O. 10. Valencia E.
Substitutes
13. Andrade A. 17. Cortez R. 14. De Buen D. 191. Estrada R. (G) 19. Gomez D. 2. Martinez E. 30. Monreal R. 3. Oliveros A. 15. Perez P. 11. Sanchez R.	197. Achinulo P. 13. Berlanga J. 99. Cadiz J. 41. Carvalho W. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 8. Guzman V. 9. Hernandez I. 15. Luna I. 14. Sanchez C. 32. Togni G.
Coaches
Gago F.	Lozano J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Cambindo D. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Quinones L. ⚽, Aceves A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Eduardo Bauermann 🟨,
55', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
60', Aceves A. ↓, Sanchez C. ↑,
64', Kenedy ↓, Togni G. ↑,
64', Idrissi O. ↓, Luna I. ↑,
67', Cambindo D. ↓, Monreal R. ↑,
72', Pedraza P. 🟨,
72', Rossano F. 🟨,
77', Rojas J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
79', Palavecino A. 🟨,
79', Valencia E. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
80', Pedraza P. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
90', Moreno C. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Necaxa: Jimenez L. (Red Card) Lara E. (Elbow Injury)

There will not play in Pachuca: Dominguez A. (International duty) Micolta A. (Knee Injury) Montiel E. (International duty)

There are questionable in Pachuca: Carvalho W. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:36. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.6:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Necaxa - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 34.39%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Atlas - Necaxa	3:2 ✺
23.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
19.09.25	Necaxa - Puebla	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Necaxa - Juárez	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWTL
- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Pachuca - Atlético San Luis	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Puebla - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Pachuca - Querétaro	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Club América - Pachuca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
11.04.25	Necaxa - Pachuca	3:5
02.11.24	Pachuca - Necaxa	6:2
05.05.24	Pachuca - Necaxa	2:1
23.02.24	Necaxa - Pachuca	1:1
30.09.23	Pachuca - Necaxa	1:1
29.01.23	Pachuca - Necaxa	2:1
27.07.22	Necaxa - Pachuca	2:0

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