Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	FOX One
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Necaxa		Cruz Azul

	1	X	2
	3.80	3.60	1.91	Watch
	3.50	3.60	1.95
	3.40	3.60	1.93	Watch
	3.69	3.72	2.07
	3.51	3.76	1.99	Watch
	3.60	3.75	2.00
	3.92	3.62	1.96	Watch
	3.55	3.60	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↓ (3.65)	3.66 ↓ (3.77)	1.98 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
26.2%

Draw
25.9%

Cruz Azul
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

24.7%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

24.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Necaxa - Cruz Azul Predictions

Users Predictions: Cruz Azul will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jimenez L. (G) 5. Naves 4. Pena A. (C) 3. Oliveros A. 13. Gonzalez O. 21. Espindola M. 6. Leyva D. 8. Faravelli L. 88. Vargas C. 9. Carranza J. 10. Ruiz J.	23. Mier K. (G) 16. Marquez J. 4. Ditta W. 5. Orozco J. 3. Campos O. 17. Garcia A. 8. Palavecino A. 20. Paradela J. 19. Rodriguez C. (C) 55. Gonzalez R. 7. Ibanez N.
Substitutes
1. Andrade C. (G) 17. Cortez R. 33. Martinez R. 20. Mendez F. 15. Ochoa D. 16. Pedraza P. 99. Rodriguez E. 11. Torres Patino J. P. 90. Valencia J. 14. Zaleta M.	49. Diaz J. 11. Ebere C. 21. Fernandez G. 27. Gamboa B. 1. Gudino A. (G) 10. Montano A. 12. Montes A. 22. Rodarte J. 18. Romero L. 70. Silva I.
Coaches
Varini M.	Huiqui J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Marquez J. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
32', Vargas C. ↓, Zaleta M. ↑,
43', Leyva D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Naves ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
46', Espindola M. ↓, Torres Patino J. P. ↑,
46', 0 - 2, Ibanez N. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
53', 0 - 3, Ditta W. ⚽, Paradela J. (A),
54', Ditta W. 🟨,
59', Garcia A. 🟨,
61', Faravelli L. ↓, Pedraza P. ↑,
61', Gonzalez O. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
67', Ruiz J. 🟨,
73', Marquez J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
73', Gonzalez R. ↓, Rodarte J. ↑,
73', Ibanez N. ↓, Fernandez G. ↑,
78', Leyva D. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Rodriguez E. ⚽, Pedraza P. (A),
84', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
84', Paradela J. ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
84', Garcia A. ↓, Montes A. ↑,
86', Campos O. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
90+4', Pedraza P. 🟨,
90+4', Torres Patino J. P. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Recently, Necaxa has had a series of away games.

Recently, Cruz Azul has had a series of home games.

Cruz Azul will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cruz Azul: Lira E. (Transfer negotiations) Morales A. (Knee Injury) Rotondi C. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Necaxa: Rosero K. (Contusion) Tello I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Cruz Azul: Gonzalez K. (Injury) Piovi G. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:33. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19:18	1	16
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12:20	-8	8

Last Results with these Odds

Necaxa - the odds 3.65 are the expected chance of winning is 25.51%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
23.08.26	UNAM - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
17.08.26	Necaxa - Club León	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.26	New York City - Necaxa	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Chicago Fire - Necaxa	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
02.08.26	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TLWLL
- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
22.08.26	Cruz Azul - Atlas	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.26	Cruz Azul - Chicago Fire	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Cruz Azul - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
01.08.26	Cruz Azul - Atlante	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
26.04.26	Cruz Azul - Necaxa	4:1
21.10.25	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	1:1
28.01.25	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	1:3
05.10.24	Cruz Azul - Necaxa	3:0
16.03.24	Cruz Azul - Necaxa	1:2
04.10.23	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	1:3
21.01.23	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	1:0

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