Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Lugazi FC Stadium (Najjembe)


	Lugazi Municipal		Mbarara City

	1	X	2
	2.08	2.82	3.6
	2	2.86	3.63
	2	2.75	3.7
	2.03	2.91	3.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.04)	2.84 ↑ (2.82)	3.68 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugazi Municipal
44.1%

Draw
31.5%

Mbarara City
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

31.8%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

31.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugazi Municipal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The chances for Mbarara City have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugazi Municipal than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mbarara City than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Lugazi Municipal - Mbarara City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Kamugisha C. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 12 and 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mbarara City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lugazi could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lugazi won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lugazi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Lugazi	5	2	0	3	4:9	-5	6
16	Mbarara City	4	0	2	2	0:2	-2	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lugazi Municipal FC
Ugandan Super League
29.04.26	Buhimba United Saints - Lugazi Municipal	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Lugazi Municipal - Kitara	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Lugazi Municipal - Villa	0:1 ✺
10.04.26	Lugazi Municipal - Entebbe UPPC	2:1 ✺
Ugandan Cup
17.03.26	NEC FC - Lugazi Municipal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLWL
- Mbarara City FC
Ugandan Super League
28.04.26	Mbarara City - Express	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	NEC FC - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
09.04.26	UPDF - Mbarara City	3:1 ✺
13.03.26	Bul - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
10.03.26	Mbarara City - Kitara	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
24.01.26	Mbarara City - Lugazi Municipal	0:0
12.12.24	Lugazi Municipal - Mbarara City	1:1

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