Match Info

A-League - Round 26

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: King A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 4, TNT Sports 7
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV
World	Onefootball


	Melbourne City		Adelaide United

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.9	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.7	3.25
	2.09	3.88	3.43
	2.14	3.83	3.13	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.1
	2.08	3.78	3.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.9)	3.77 ↓ (3.95)	3.28 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
46%

Draw
25.1%

Adelaide United
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

24.1%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

23.3%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Adelaide United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Melbourne City - Adelaide United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Adelaide (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Melbourne City will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 1 - 50%). Adelaide (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 36. Shillington H. 22. Ferreyra G. 26. Souprayen S. 16. Behich A. (C) 39. Durakovic E. 30. Kuen A. 19. Schreiber Z. 28. Younis M. 17. Caputo M. 11. Rashani E.	22. Smits J. (G) 58. Crawford H. 3. Vriends B. (C) 4. Kikianis P. 14. Barnett J. 23. Duzel L. 55. Alagich E. 19. Dukuly Y. 44. White R. 12. Yull J. 87. Anselmo
Substitutes
2. Delbridge H. 10. Kanamori T. 44. Kutleshi B. 7. Leckie M. 35. Memeti M. 40. Nieuwenhuizen J. (G) 41. Wong L.	42. Ayoubi A. 40. Cox E. (G) 11. Goodwin C. 9. Jovanovic L. 10. Muniz J. 52. Phillis S. 62. Talladira F.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Andrioli A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Younis M. ⚽, Shillington H. (A),
40', Souprayen S. ↓, Delbridge H. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', Durakovic E. ↓, Kutleshi B. ↑,
63', Schreiber Z. ↓, Leckie M. ↑,
63', Duzel L. ↓, Muniz J. ↑,
63', Dukuly Y. ↓, Jovanovic L. ↑,
70', Caputo M. 🟨,
75', Caputo M. ↓, Memeti M. ↑,
75', Kuen A. ↓, Wong L. ↑,
78', Anselmo ↓, Goodwin C. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Jovanovic L. ⚽, Goodwin C. (A),
86', Kutleshi B. 🟨,
89', Delbridge H. 🟨,
89', Crawford H. ↓, Ayoubi A. ↑,
90+2', Barnett J. 🟨,
90+6', Ferreyra G. 🟨,
90+6', Jovanovic L. 🟨,
90+6', Behich A. 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 2, Jovanovic L. ⚽, White R. (A),
90+10', Jovanovic L. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 1.

Melbourne City has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Adelaide is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Adelaide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Melbourne City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Kanamori T. (Knee Injury) Lopane A. (Muscle Injury) Teague R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Adelaide: Goodwin C. (Groin Injury) Najdovski J. (Knee Injury) Pierias D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Adelaide: Kitto R. (Injury) Riak A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:39. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:10. (average 1.7:1.1).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne City: 14.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
18.04.26	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne City	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Melbourne City - Central Coast Mariners	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Melbourne City - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Perth Glory - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWT
- Adelaide United
Australian A-League
19.04.26	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Adelaide United - Auckland FC	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Adelaide United	2:4 ✺
14.03.26	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
21.11.25	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	4:1
26.04.25	Melbourne City - Adelaide United	0:0
07.02.25	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	1:0
25.01.24	Melbourne City - Adelaide United	1:0
29.10.23	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	6:0
03.03.23	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	4:2
28.01.23	Melbourne City - Adelaide United	3:3

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